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VTSS Investor Forum

Investor presentation next week

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Next week VTSS is scheduled to present at what was formerly the AEA investor conference. As a matter of routine if any company has new information for the investment community it will be disclosed in a public press release prior to the conference thereby allowing management to speak openly about it at the conference. VTSS has already announce an earning shortfall so I would be a little surprised if we had another announcement before next week. But this is VTSS.

I don't think we will hear anything new. I will be looking for any comments on the expected revenue for FY 2012. From comments management has made to this point it appears that they are looking for revenue in the $135-$140 range for the year ending September 2012. that would be flat with this year.

Here is the revenue for VTSS for the 5 years through FY 2012 (in hundreds of millions of dollars):

2008 - 228
2009 - 168
2010 - 166
2011 - 138-140 (estimate, this will be very close)
2012 - 135-140 (estimate)

I hope management has a great story to tell at that investor conference because these numbers do not inspire confidence. The people at the conference are professional investors.

Posted by dlog - 14 years ago | Updated 14 years ago

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Vitesse will be presenting on Sunday, November 6
At 4:40 PM ET

This is located on the Vitesse website, under IR events and presentations

Kind of odd to be presenting on a Sunday, but it is what it is.

Posted by christ3opher - 14 years ago

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I have checked for a recording of the presentation and as of now can't find it. I did notice however that on the VTSS website under the investor section they are showing an "earnings conference call" date of December 6. This is a little odd. There has been no general announcement of the date for the release of 4q and year end earnings. But someone has decided it will be Dec 6. That is as good as any I guess.

Posted by dlog - 14 years ago

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Could someone at VTSS be reading our site?

less than 6 hours after I posted the above remark we see a general announcement stating the 4Q earnings release will be on December 6. This is out a full 30 days before the actual event, a record early announcement by VTSS. Maybe the new CFO has changed the previous practice of announcing the earnings call 7-10 before the event. Or maybe we just have someone trying to correct an oversight.

Posted by dlog - 14 years ago

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The investor presentation recording is up if you have any desire to watch it. Actually the recording is pretty good in technical quality with video of Gardner and Marty.

There continues to be however, a very large disconnect between the rhetoric and the actual numbers. Again they are talking to professional investors and no one believes what you say until you have some numbers to validate it.

Here is the biggest take away from the presentation: 2012? Not so good.

Somewhat of interest:

Cash balance at September 30, 2011: "Slightly less" than the balance at June 30 (ie $18.2 million).

Working capital at September 30: $33 million.

An IP contract slipped out of the quarter. 50% of the miss in revenue was due to this. The revenue miss was 5-8 million so that makes the IP contract $2.5-$4 million.

gardner in opening statement said he expected VTSS in 2012 to "breakout and achieve some revenue growth". but the numbers look very suspect here.

Here is the quarterly revenue for FY 2011

Dec '10 - 37.7
Mar '11 - 36.9
Jun '11 - 35.9
Sept ' 11 - 30.0 (est)

total 140.5

Here is the strongest statement of revenue growth in the presentation made by Big Mac (aka Marty mac our new CFO).

We expect revenue growth in the Sept 2012 quarter "to be in excess of 25% above revenue in the 4Q 2011" (quote may not be word for word but that is what he said and that is the second time I have heard him say this.)

The 4Q 2011 is going to be $30 million. 25% growth is $37.5 million, essentially the level of every other quarter in 2011. It is hard to believe this is the strongest statement that can be made. It basically says the other quarters will be flat at best and could actually be down. I would be extremely surprised to see Dec 2011 above the previous year of $37.7 million.

I could go on here but this is enough and I need to do other things.

Management has done a good job of reducing costs and lowering the breakeven point I will give them that. But management is not hired to disembowel a company. I take some solace in the fact that management has never hit their targets firmly establishing the fact that they have no idea what is coming down the pike. (they are not alone here. Virtually every management is the same.) all of the surprises have been negative to this point. Hopefully someday the surprise will be on the upside.

Posted by dlog - 14 years ago

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