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VTSS Investor Forum

earnings report December 6

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Just so everyone knows. VTSS will be announcing its (pre-announced) earnings on December 6 with a conference call at 1:30 pm Pacific time.

http://investor.vitesse.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=621710

Management previously announced an expected revenue number of $29.0 - $30.5 million.

http://investor.vitesse.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=610185

At this point i would have to believe they will report numbers fairly close to those estimates (or they would have put out a second announcement already). That doesn't mean they won't be outside the announced expectation but they should be at least close.

of course the real interest is on December 6 there will only be 25 days left in the quarter and what are they seeing for revenue for the December quarter? Supposedly there is an IP contract that slipped out of the 4Q. We will see if it got signed in the 1Q or if it has slipped further.

Posted by dlog - 13 years ago

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I wouldn't assume rev estimates have to be "fairly close" because they haven't pre-announced- CRG does his own thing.

He'll spin a tale (has plenty of practice over the years) of goals that just didn't get met due to "External problems" that are beyond his control. Why doesn't he just set estimates closer to reality- hoping for a prayer to be answered seems to be his modus operandi.

But let's not forget that IP contract to save the day- sad!

Posted by Techinvestor - 13 years ago

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Just for comparison here are the revenue numbers for MSPD and AMCC

Here is the percentage change in revenue from the previous year for the 90 days ended september 30, 2011. MSPD and AMCC have already reported so their numbers are good. I am using a $30 million estimate for VTSS.

change in revenue year over year for 90 days ended september 30, 2011

MSPD: -8.9%
AMCC: -1.5%
VTSS: - 30%

Here is the percentage change for revenue for the 12 months ended September 30, 2011 (6 months for AMCC):

MSPD: -3.5%
AMCC: -.8%
VTSS: -15.3%


Here is the 5 history of revenue for the 3 companies starting with 2007 and moving forward to 2011 (in millions. AMCC is on a fiscal march, MSPD and VTSS are fiscal sept.).

MSPD: 125.8, 144,4, 121.5, 165.4, 159.6

AMCC: 242.4, 194.1, 214.2, 205.6, 247.7

VTSS: 221.9, 218.5, 154.9, 165.6, 133.8

Here is the compounded annual percentage growth rate for the 3 companies. this is for the 4 years starting 2007 and ending 2011.

MSPD: +6.3%
AMCC: +.5%
VTSS: -11.8%

and finally. Here is the percentage stock price change from the last trading day in September of 2007 to the last trading day in September 2011.

MSPD: -40%
AMCC: -57%
VTSS: -85%

Posted by dlog - 13 years ago | Updated 13 years ago

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Yawn-

CRG earnings call today at 1:30 PDT. NO pre-earnings run (price flat) & volume anemic (23.1k shares as of 11:30AM).

No one cares about VTSS- forget all about the new product announcements; they have no effect.

Posted by Techinvestor - 13 years ago

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It's now 4:20 Eastern. I am showing after market trades of $2.60 with a few prints in the $2.70-2.75 range.

Numbers don't look that good to me. but who am I. wait to see if we get any further info on the conference call.

Posted by dlog - 13 years ago

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the only real news I see is the announcement of the $75 million shelf registration for debt or equity. The official line is "we have no plans to use it" but they have unofficial plans to use it you can bet. What this means is we are one step closer to more dilution of the current shareholders. Cash and debt are still a problem obviously.

The revenue expectations for 2012 are nothing but a replay of the past 5 years. - We will have growth but it will be "back-end loaded" ie we don't see any growth in the first 6 months but we are budgeting growth for the Jun and Sep quarters because thats what we always do - and never achieve. I will say this. given the 4Q they just reported, $30 million in revenue, it would be very hard NOT to show growth next year in the 4Q on a year over year basis.

They are doing a credible job of controlling and reducing expenses. they did announce they have already reduced the work force by 41 people so the operating break-even point is coming down. (This tells you more about the expectation of revenue than anything they actually said. Generally you don't lay off people when you expect revenue to grow.)

At this point I would use a revenue number for all of 2012 of $140 million, flat with 2011. And that is with a 4Q 2012 growth over 4Q 2011 of 20-25%.

Just not a real strong market right now.

Posted by dlog - 13 years ago | Updated 13 years ago

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"Just not a real strong market right now."

Frankly, it has not been for VTSS since 2000, this is twelve fucking years that POS has been on the slide . . . what is the point of this thing trading in the public markets?

Posted by G - 13 years ago

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Dlog - the big news I heard was that they are guiding flat to +6% for the next Q while everyone else is guiding down sharply:

MSPD down 8-12%
PMCS down 8-13%
AMCC down 12% (avg analyst est)
BRCM "outlook reflects softness"

Posted by thereinman - 13 years ago

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Doesn't the $75M shelf registration at least give them some leverage against the bondholders in 2014 if everyone can't play nice when we get to that point?

Posted by sharpinvestments - 13 years ago

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the shelf might be dilutive -- or might not --

maybe they find a fund that is happy with 15MM shrs at $4.50 in a convert at 6% - - they could retire the convert A for $46.5MM while extending the term of the note - -AND pay off andy on the secured note.

sharp is right - -they need leverage this time around - -and will get much better terms if they continue to perform thru 2013.

thereinman is correct - -read above again - -

the box game is in flux by the new LTE/advanced specs - which means product delays for the boxes - -meanwhile the 4 design outs of their competition in favor of VTSS chipsets that meet the specs and provide more datalogging info - - will cost those vendors 6 months at minimum - -BUT is says that VTSS is the switch king in the next round of boxes. (design outs at product inception are rare - vtss had 4 of em for a reason - -they meet tight specs - -)

still a tough slog to 2014 but vtss will be accepted back as a peer and eventually recognized as a leader in this field - -also check the low power part of the cc.

btw - on my 36 mi road ride sunday - my bro in law was listening to Pandora on his iPhone thru ATT - -that goes right thru mobile backhaul - - last saturday, i watched 5 high school football games at once on a feed from fox sports west dot com - -that streaming video at its finest and also addin new data demands to the net.

Posted by daWiley1 - 13 years ago

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$46.5MM + $9.34MM converts + $7.9MM secured note = $63.74MM

issue 15MM @ 6% convert at $4.50 for $67.5MM

and pay off andy and his bond frens. while reducing interest expense and extending the loan to 2017. almost a no brainer.

and not dilutive.

Posted by daWiley1 - 13 years ago

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The great majority (and the only reason i say great majority is because I don't want to use the word "all"which is the accurate word) of convertible bonds have the convertible price at no higher than 35% over the market price of the stock at the time the convertible bonds are sold. VTSS has a long way to go before it is within 30% of the $4.50 convertible price of the current bonds. Believe me i hope it makes it there. My real hope (as unrealistic as it is) is the stock price goes to $10 and then the company can sell straight common at $10 per sahre and pay the bonds off with equity raised at $10 per share rather than $4.50. That cuts the dilution in half.

but if the stock price stays where it is there will be no selling a replacement convertible bond with a strike price at $4.50. that simply will not happen

Posted by dlog - 13 years ago

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Well here is something we can take heart in. FLOW International (FLOW) just report earnings and the stock which closed at $2.42 before the earnings report is now trading up one full dollar at $3.40, up 40% in one day. The company is a miserable little thing that has gone nowhere in 20 years. Revenue has yet to reach $250 million, the market cap of the company close to $100 million, and the stock, well you can be glad you don't own it. New CEO some 3 years ago. Reduced cost structure put in "efficiencies", lowered the break even point, blah blah blah. Stock dropped from about $8 (when the CEO was put in) to sub $2. In other words it is much like VTSS but in a completely different industry.

The point here being that the laws of finance are still operating very well. All you need is some decent numbers and the stock responds VERY quickly. So here's hoping that someday VTSS will actually surprise us on the upside.

Posted by dlog - 13 years ago | Updated 13 years ago

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