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VTSS Investor Forum

We Have a New Investor Relations Firm

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I just recently noticed that Abernathy Macgregor ( Amy Feng) is no longer listed in charge of Vitesse investor relations.

LHA Lippert / Heilshorn ( Mary Magnani ) is now listed as being in charge of Vitesse investor relations.


Below the May 8 earnings call release shows that LSA is the company in charge of investor relations. you can click on LSA to go to their website. Once there you can track down specifically what Mary Magnani specializises in.

Lets all hope that LSA has come aboard to focus on shareholder value and nothing else.

Posted by christ3opher - 13 years ago | Updated 13 years ago

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I thought this was the case but was too lazy to check it out. Thanks for the insight.

Posted by dlog - 13 years ago

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So vtss has hired a firm that will not speak to the shareholders for them. It must be good to be the king. As I remember, there was a woman who used to be in charge of shareholder communication. Oh well, hopefully they've saved some money.

Posted by phobos - 13 years ago

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1/31/13

looks like Vitesse has TWO marketing firms working for them.

LHA (Lippert/Heilshorn) continues to be listed under a few releases.

and now,

I see that SHIFT Communications (Jennifer Usher)
is listed under press releases going back many months.

The more the better?

Posted by christ3opher - 12 years ago | Updated 12 years ago

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We can use all the help we can get- CRG certainly isn't getting the message out with all of his platitudes.

Posted by Techinvestor - 12 years ago

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At this point the only message that matters is:

REVENUE

not until Quarter 2?

Posted by christ3opher - 12 years ago

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Q1 is supposed to be the bottom, so we are told. Like I said before, the "pros" buy on the news and sell on the rumor, and right now it's ALL rumor, no matter the prospects. Let's see what Q2 brings ... some time in May (?) Everyone will be looking for the bounce. Increasing revenue will solve the dilemma of the ever-shrinking company and the debt issue too.

Posted by phobos - 12 years ago

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Perhaps we are not really going to get anywhere with Revenues. On the CC, they said that New Products would grow from $7.5M to $15M this year - net increase of $7.5M, but the also said that Legacy Products would decline - $1M this quarter and then another $.5M each quarter - I make that to mean $1M, $1.5M, $2M, $2.5M, for a total net decline in Legacy of $7.0M for the year. I don't see any progress there, do you? If you continue into the next year, NP is suppose to increase from $15M to $30M - a net increase of $15M. But LP should continue to decrease $3M, $3.5M, $4M, $4.5M or $15M total. Does anyone read it the same. I don't think they meant LP would go down this quarter and then rise next quarter and stay level - that not what old product do. Not a very good picture, I think.

Satbob

Posted by Satbob - 11 years ago

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I was reading LP revenue as a fixed (not accelerating) decline of $0.5M per quarter. If that's the case, then Martin and company would only be buying in to sell this value destroying company and to do so as quickly as possible. With the present debt situation, I'm not sure that makes any sense. Does anyone else have an alternative reading?

Posted by phobos - 11 years ago

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i have asked that question at the last shm and on a conference call before that - - the time delay for implementing TD-LTE and LTE/Advanced caused by new standards being adopted which are really 5G made all vendors slip until boxes meeting the spec were tested and approved by customers - - for vtss that meant two things - -legacy products would decline at a more rapid rate than shipments of new products - -the server customers put 4G buys on hold until they met the new Advanced spec - - - and then there was a push by customers to bridge the gap in 3G CDMA by ordering new designs that extended the life and speed of that old technology. vtss and others designed and shipped the last round of 3G as a stop gap and actually cannabalized some shipments of plain 4G - - the proposed merger of att and t-mobile also caused a delay in orders for 4G as well ( t-mobile uses huawei servers which the u.s. government and csco are banning inside our borders - -the att plan would have placed them in canada and mexico)

so - until china telecom orders from huawei, zte and fiberhome -- vtss won't see orders for chips that were long ago designed into current products --the silver lining is that vtss was the first to ship some of these parts which met the /Advanced spec.

also there is a Long Term Evolution which is going to re-build the information superhighway on a global scale - -there are many facets to this huge undertaking - -vtss does not compete directly with all their peers in every arena - - there is enough work to go around - - at some point there will be more anal cysts that understand that vtss is now the Swiss Watch (don't say Rowlecks or they will sue you) and timekeeper of 4G with the widest array of parts that meet the 1588 international standard - -they also are the power kings, switch kings, and error correction kings - - - all this will come to pass as our POS is better understood and awarded fair valuation as a member of this sector.

Legacy Products should decline as Phobos has posted above. and the ? to ask crg is -- after we get to $30-34MM in new product revs in 2013 - will it continue to double for the next 2 years - - he won't be inclined to answer in the affirmative quite yet - but that is my expectation as we are at the core of this major undertaking. other ?s to ask are: do we expect to have folks make illegal copies of our designs and infringe patents or even ship clones in china - and what are we prepared to do about it?? when will we sell IP that reduces the power use by all chips on the backplane?? how do we get IP sales of error correction to expand - -can we make it a standard that pays us for our technical excellence??

Posted by daWiley1 - 11 years ago

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If I recall correctly, CG did say something about NP revenue doubling again in '14, which would bring us to the previously implied $40M/Qtr by the end of 2014. I'm thinking 160*2.0/35 or around $9/share. The assumptions are, continued strong growth in new products and markets, continued very modest erosion of legacy products, and a macro environment that does not implode during this period. It may prove a tall order. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

Posted by phobos - 11 years ago

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Below are taken from the fiscal year 2012 earnings call (definitely worth reading/listening to again). This may help somewhat to get a better idea in what Vitesse sees going forward.

" While we're hopeful that our markets will start to show a sustained recovery, we're not planning for that, and we continue to expect our business will be led by the growth of new products in new platforms."

" While most of our revenue in IP is still license-fee based, we expect that royalties will become a contributing factor starting in 2014."

" We expect wins to accelerate in 2013 as products get some more time in the market. These products will start to ramp at the end of 2013 and into 2014."

" In 2012 we closed over 200 design wins for our new products. We expect to exceed this number in 2013. We currently have nearly 400 pending opportunities for our new product portfolio, more than double compared with this time last year."

The earnings call also stated that 2011 and 2012 was the building of the foundation and that there will be many opportunites to build-out from here on, adding revenue.

Posted by christ3opher - 11 years ago | Updated 11 years ago

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From the most recent quarterly report (http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4EMVKT/2213137654x0x620351/1c96e469-9706-42ef-a808-f6ec6cc66a79/Vitesse_Semiconductor_Q412_Call_12_4_12.pdf) comes:

"Our new products are ramping nicely. We expect to see greater
than 100 percent growth in this portfolio from 2012 to 2013, and again, into 2014." -- this is near the bottom of page 9, and I take this to mean that NP revenue will double from '12 to '13 and double again from '13 to '14.

From further up on page 9 we have:

"We expect revenue from our new product portfolio to double in 2012 and double again in 2013, exceeding 30 percent of our product revenue by the end of 2013."

So this means that the legacy product revenue divided by its proportion of total revenue of around $100M/0.7 would be about $143M on a yearly basis, or the last quarter of 2013 would be around $35.7M.

This is encouraging talk, but it also means that VTSS is dead money until there is evidense of a bounce in May or August. Tomorrow's earnings report may be ugly and have the share price cratering yet again in the near term.

Posted by phobos - 11 years ago

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Here's what I read into the LP - whatever the starting amount doesn't really matter -

1st Qtr 2013: -$1.0M

2nd Qtr 2013: -$1.5M (another $.5M)

3rd Qtr 2013: -$2.0M (another $.5M)

4th Qtr 2013: -$2.5M (another $.5M)

Total for 2013: -$7.0M in LP with NP UP $7.5M

NET is just $.5M Increase in Revenue

I make 2013 at $119.6M plus $.5M = $120.1M

Continuing on into 2014:

1st Qtr 2014: -$3.0M (another $.5M)

2nd Qtr 2014: -$3.5M (another $.5M)

3rd Qtr 2014: -$4.0M (another $.5M)

4th Qtr 2014: -$4.5M (another $.5M)

Total for 2014: -$15.0M in LP with NP UP another $30M more.

NET is $15M Increase in Revenue

I make 2014 at $120.1 plus $15M = $135.1M

and into 2015, even continued optimism for increasing Revenue:

1st Qtr 2015: -$5.0M (another $.5M)

2nd Qtr 2015: -$5.5M (another $.5M)

3rd Qtr 2015: -$6.0M (another $.5M)

4th Qtr 2015: -$6.5M (another $.5M)

Total for 2015: -$23.0M in LP with NP UP another $60M more.

NET is $37M Increase in Revenue

I make 2015 at $135.1M plus $37M = $172.1M

While that is a nice number ($172.1) it nearly 3 years into the future with a whole lot of continued hoping and wishing. VTSS has never been particularly good at forecasting increases in Revenue. I would bet they are correct the LP will continue this decline, but will the Revenue forecast come in?

Satbob

Posted by Satbob - 11 years ago

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Satbob ... you may be right, but I'm not getting that. If the decline in legacy product is cumulative, and by the end of '13 it amounts to -$7.0M, then that would place the revenue at the end of the quarter at 93/0.7 on a yearly basis, or at about a $33M final quarter if new products are 30% of the mix at that point. I think this is very close to Wiley1's estimate as well. I don't think VTSS has predicted growth since the days of Louie the Channel Stuffer, so who knows how accurate they are at forecasting. Growth is virgin territory for this company. Is anyone else getting anything different?

Posted by phobos - 11 years ago | Updated 11 years ago

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Taken from: http://biz.yahoo.com/e/121204/vtss10-k.html

"In 2012, we began a migration of our revenues to our new product portfolio. In 2011, only 6% of our product revenue was from our new product portfolio. In 2012, this grew to 14% of product revenues. We expect revenue from our new products to double in 2013 compared to 2012 and double again in 2014."

14% 2012 revenues ($119.483M) would be $16 .78M. In 2013, this should double to $33.46M, and in 2014 this should double again to $66.91. So, for 2013, take around $120M+$16M-$7M and get around $129M. For 2014, take $129M+$33M-$15M and get around $147M. In 2015 (a timeline this far out has never been mentioned) $147M+$67M-$23M gets us to $191M.

By 2014 VTSS should be able to accrue an additional $30M~$40M in cash in the service and or disposal of debt.

At the end of 2015, this would bring the share price to 191*3/35 more than $16 dollars per share.

The above is likely delusional thinking on my part, but I can dream can't I? The earnings announcement later on today is still likely to be ugly.

Posted by phobos - 11 years ago

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you did my math!! and i am not delusional - - just ask my family, friends (what friends?) and the staff at camarillo state mental hospital.

yesterday i stated the ? wrong - -it is "will we double revs of new products again from the 2014 = $67MM??" does it double, flatten or just increase at a slower rate? (i use $17MM for 2012 - doubling each yr. - - so i use $34(2013), $68 (2014) $$$? (2015) and this cycle will last well into 2016-2018.

i project vtss to double sales in this build-out and eventually have $60MM quarters - - so the next double in 2015 would take me past my targets - -i fully expect $10 (the old $0.50 to fall on this run - - it is a technical target and a 5 bagger from today's price.

i don't expect today to totally suck - - crg already said at the last conference something to the effect that he had a $30MM quarter - -prolly not all ops revs but if it comes in at $ 30MM then he beat his last cc downward revision.

Posted by daWiley1 - 11 years ago

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OK ... in keeping with the cult of ever-lower expectations that is the vtss investment community $33.46M (from above)/0.3 (30% of product mix) would be approximately $112M for 2013: a 7% decline in revenue IF new products continue to double in sales. This puts the share price at $1.60 with a p/s ratio of 0.5 with 35M fully diluted shares. Why would anyone buy stock in this company? VTSS: great products, lousy business.

Posted by phobos - 11 years ago

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OK ... extrapolating forward ...

A 2013 year end number makes sense if new products are growing at 100% and legacy products decline by 24% per year. At the end of 2012 legacy was 102.7M and new product revenue was 16.8M for a top line of around 119.5M. By the end of 2013 legacy, if it continues its decline will be at 78.1M and new product revenue will be at 33.6M for a total of around 111.6M. 2014 should see 67.1M of new product revenue and 59.3M of legacy revenue for a year end total of 126.4M. I don't think this will be enough to reorganize the debt. If I were Martin I would be thinking one of three things: 1) clean house and bring in new management, 2) sell it, 3) take it private, clean house, and sell it off in whole or in part. Thoughts?

Posted by phobos - 11 years ago

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