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VTSS Investor Forum

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I found the story below on the Vitesse twitter site.

deals with the security of cloud computing


http://www.cloudtweaks.com/2013/04/where-does-security-stand-on-mobile-cloud-computing/

Posted by christ3opher - 10 years ago | Updated 10 years ago

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The Timing king is KING! indeed we've hit the jackpot... In some not so distant future we will come to hear VeryTime is in the heart of all projects world wide.
I just hope the share price doesn't go up for another 3 business days.

peace

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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Vitesse continues to bring the right products to market.


YI: Small-cell backhaul strategies
Phil Marshall/Tolaga Research | April 30, 2013

Competition in the mobile industry is continuing to increase as markets saturate, subscribers become more demanding and mobile broadband traffic grows at an astonishing rate. In the face of heightened competition, mobile operators are seeking cost-effective network solutions to improve coverage, capacity and overall service reliability. Increasingly, mobile operators are looking to overlay small-cells to address local coverage and capacity challenges in their networks.



Although small-cells have been available virtually as long as mobile communications, small-cell radio base stations have only recently become sufficiently cost-effective for large-scale implementations. These implementations not only depend on low-cost radio equipment, but also require that the small-cells are sufficiently integrated and automated for cost-effective implementations, operations and backhaul capabilities.



While a great deal of attention has been paid to optimizing the costs for implementing small-cell radio infrastructure, recent efforts have focused on small-cell backhaul solutions that are capable of addressing the needs of high-capacity demands. Key to these backhaul solutions are low equipment costs and “zero-footprint” form-factors, flexible architectures and automated operational capabilities.



Small-cell backhaul providers including Alcatel-Lucent, BLinQ, E-Band, Ericsson, Ceragon, Cambridge Broadband, Radwin and Silku have introduced a variety of innovations to lower the small-cell backhaul equipment costs with integrated solutions that aim to deliver zero-footprint form-factors.



The small-cell industry has established a $5,000 average target cost for each small-cell implementation and is aiming for backhaul to constitute 20-30% of this cost, namely between $1,000 and $1,500. This price target challenges conventional backhaul solutions and has resulted in a variety of innovations, such as highly integrated and purpose-built architectures, seamless carrier grade Ethernet, and the use of both licensed and unlicensed radio spectrum for wireless links.



For most implementations, further innovations are still needed to reach the price targets that are being pursued by the industry. Given their impact on backhaul costs, we expect that many of the innovations being pioneered for small-cells will ultimately be applied to macro-cellular solutions in the future.Flexible and reliable architectures

Unlike traditional macro-cellular backhaul, which consists of carefully architected point-to-point solutions, backhaul solutions for small-cells must have sufficient flexibility to enable radio base station sites to be implemented rapidly and cost effectively. This calls for point-to-point and point-to-multipoint solutions that are optimized among a tapestry of transmission solutions available, whether fixed fiber or copper or microwave radio. In most cases operators lack fiber or copper resources at the small-cell sites, and must use radio technologies for lateral connections to these sites.



Since these lateral connections are over a relatively short range, high-frequency microwave solutions, such as those operating in the E-Band (70- to 80-GHz range) and more recently the unlicensed V-Band (6-GHz range), have been adopted. While some industry pundits suggest that these solutions can be deployed with non-line-of-sight (NLOS) links, we believe that these solutions will only operate reliably with LOS links.



Lower frequency implementations are necessary in cases where NLOS links are required and, therefore, typical small-cell implementations will include radio links operating among sub-10-GHz, 10-30-GHz and E-Band and V-Band frequency ranges.



Backhaul solutions must be capable of adapting as small-cell implementations are modified and expanded and must also be capable of self-healing in cases where link failures occur. When small-cell solutions are implemented at scale, conventional backhaul optimization solutions cannot achieve the operational efficiencies needed. In response, small-cell backhaul solutions are increasingly embracing the principles of self-organizing network (SON) technologies, which include automated infrastructure provisioning, configuration management and optimization, and self-healing capabilities. This represents a natural extension of the SON capabilities that are being applied to the small-cell radio access network implementations. It is underpinned by a broader industry trend toward operational automation.



Fueled by the strong market momentum, small-cell backhaul solutions will benefit from significant innovation over the next two to three years. While we expect these innovations will address many of the technical and economic challenges for small-cell backhaul, they will require mobile operators to transition from the status quo and embrace technologies such as point-to-multipoint, SON automation, ultra-high frequency operations and in some cases the use of unlicensed radio spectrum bands. It is this transition from status quo that will ultimately determine the rate of small-cell adoption. Less

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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GARIF- I like your positive attitude (Unlike myself). If VTSS had you working in Sales/Marketing (Possibly already the case), VTSS would be reporting great results next Tuesday!

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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Work for Vitesse! in my lone direct contact with the Vitesse team I embarrassed them all by demanding a response to the question of Why Crg was being compensated so well when the results of his efforts are undeserving...

My love affair is with the possibilities for a company which has vital technologies that are must have for an industry to move smoothly forward. Verizon, At&T, Sprint, are building with Vitesse inside. I know this because I talk to the very guys blocking our streets all over Los Angeles(Erisson people) installing modern stuff.

The Asian project has now been confirmed, Vitesse parts are in the middle.
exciting stuff indeed!!!!

Peace

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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Friends the answer to our concerns is spelled MEF!! no more having to wait a year or two to put money in the bank for Vitesse! This is CRG's secret weapon, this will truly expedite bill payments.. anyone agree???

http://www.carrierethernetnews.com/articles/636232/carrier-ethernet-2-0-comes-to-silicon/

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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The immediate problem for VTSS, as has been discussed, is increasing Revs. and selling something (Anything) which should increase chances to address debt problem and instill investor confidence.

I think VTSS is on top of having state of the art products, but they just can't execute a business plan to actually sell something. You can only cut operating costs so much or hope for increased IP revenue, which doesn't seem to be predictable from quarter to quarter.

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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he immediate problem for VTSS, as has been discussed, is increasing Revs. and selling something (Anything) which should increase chances to address debt problem and instill investor confidence.

All of the above is coming my friend! notice volume increasing along with price. I been babbling for months about the possibilities... Money is coming iiiinnn.

Sit out at your own peril...

Peace

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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the "but they just can't execute a business plan to actually sell something" -- is beginning to play out now!

you have been expecting this to all play out on your terms. It has taken years extra in time for the next wave of the telecom cycle to begin. debt, along with the economy being stagnant have added to this delay, along with alot of "we will use what we got as long as we can" before investing in any changes.

This has finally all played out and the investment has begun.

shareprice and volume moving up also

Posted by christ3opher - 10 years ago | Updated 10 years ago

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Hunger time slashed! Interesting times indeed!!!

Serval-2 samples will be available in the third quarter of 2013. Vitesse expects it will take six months for system qualification such that Ethernet access devices using the chip and carrying live traffic are expected in the first half of 2014.

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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In the words of HP,

We are also seeing continued momentum in cloud systems and we announced our commitment to bring the power of open SaaS to the enterprise to increase agility, speed innovation and lower costs. Today HP has about 1000 unique customers for CloudSystem. Stay tuned for some new and exciting cloud announcements at HP Discover in June.

Glass very full for Vitesse...

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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Gardner did his best to tie VTSS to the ubiquitous cloud to generate some excitement about the future. Unfortunately, the only cloud Gardner has is the BLACK cloud hanging over his company because of his mismanagement!

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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Interesting how Patrick Diamond is on the trip...


http://investor.vitesse.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=767172

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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This from an article on Vitesse website.
Interesting times...

Nevertheless, development of state-of-the-art switching platforms continues unabated. In fact, the ever-increasing need for density and dynamic performance offers opportunities for small networking firms to break the stranglehold of top-tier vendors like Cisco and HP. Taiwan's RubyTech, for example, is turning to advanced SoC designs by Vitesse Semiconductor for a new range of SMB/SME devices aimed at bringing carrier-class performance to the enterprise. The E-Stax-III platform, now part of RubyTech's GS-2328X and GS-2352X Stackable Layer-2+ Managed Ethernet Switch, provides less than 10 ms failover, as well as scalability to 800 Ethernet ports and a single-point management system for improved control and configuration. Applications range from videoconferencing and collaboration to VoIP and cloud-based SaaS/PaaS services

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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Perhaps our much critiqued(most well deserved) leaders of Vitesse had a better plan after all. Vitesse continues to build on her relevance in the "wireless" world, while her competitor has drifted in Rod Serling's zone.


B. Riley & Co. Presentation
I'm sure all MSPD investors on this thread that listened to this call were heartened by the delivered message, though the speaking qualities of Stephen can be deemed as juvenile at best.

As we all know 93% of last Q's revenues came from the 2 divisions other than wireless, which has experienced delays in deployment by network carriers due to the complexities of adding small cells to their legacy networks.

The problems are technical. They can be achieved undoubtedly..........the question is when.

The demand for small cells in HetNets is undeniable and will be a megatrend for the next 10 years+.

LTE will become mainstream in 2015 with infrastructure buildouts by network carriers happening before then.

MSPD deals with top tier-1 players in ALL their divisions - their customer base is SOLID.

MSPD will collect enough revenues from the 2 divisions other than wireless to keep the company viable until Morgan Stanley advises what avenue to proceed with regarding wireless.

The takeaway is that MSPD's technology is rock solid, but the divergent agendas of investors, management and those providing necessary capital are NOT very well aligned.

Personally, I will sit on the sidelines and watch this play out, neither buying or selling, but holding

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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tchavan • 6 months ago -
Vitesse has already mortgaged the farm to loan sharks to get these chips out to the equipment makers, but can it survive the 18 month Telco qual cycle given its limited financial resources?  Next trip to the loan sharks is going to be really expensive

I believe the worst is behind this little company. having the likes of Cisco, HP, Ericsson... Will soon start reflecting in the share price.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/customers-adopt-hp-converged-cloud-114500171.html

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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GARIF- I respect your penchant for optimism and hopefully the power of positive thinking, but management (Gardner) doesn't seem to have a clue on how to monetize the technology and product line at his disposal.

He will just sit back with the same unsuccessful sales strategy and try to keep squeezing operating costs while he draws his salary and stock options.

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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when talking about new products has anyone ever heard Gardner mention the size of the market for this new product, the market share he is planning on securing, the price VTSS is planning on charging, and the expected annual revenue that product is expected to generate? I am not talking about "The market is $XX billions of dollars in telecom equipment (99.99999% of which is spent on products we do not offer).

I am talking about a simple projection of we think we can sell X units at $X per unit.

I have never seen anything near that. Having worked at companies that were small (but bigger than VTSS) my guess is no one at the company, including Gardner knows what their market size is or how many units they could potentially sell. And if they do know they know it is too small to want to talk about.

Gardner is not a strategist (otherwise known as a business man). he gets seduced by technology and has little concern if it can be sold or not.

Posted by dlog - 10 years ago

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Bits and pieces from Vitesse website:


May 8th CC 2012
Krish Shankar - ROTH Capital Partners - Analyst
Okay. And how do you size the market for Carrier Ethernet chip that you are targeting? What the size of the market you're targeting and also for
the Enterprise Ethernet market? Can you just give us some sense of the size of the market?
Chris Gardner - Vitesse Semiconductor Corporation - CEO
Sure. So we have subset the IP edge and access segment, looking at what Infonetics talks about in terms of equipment there.We made some
estimates based on the equipment, the port counts, et cetera.We think in 2015 we're targeting north of $500 million for the switches and PHYs.
That doesn't include the $100 million-plus, probably $100 million to $200 million in OTN type of products. So that's just for that segment that is,
again, mobile access IP edge.

8-7 2012 CC
How do we value these designs? Like many similar companies, we have a model
that allows us to forecast future revenue from these indicators as they develop. It's
not a hard science, but we use the information to monitor trends in our business
and our effectiveness in the marketplace. Based on a conservative model of the
value of these design wins, the expected lifetime revenue from design wins
recorded since the start of 2011 is now over $500 million. More than half of this
revenue forecast is for our new products introduced since 2010.


And can you size what is the approximate size of the semiconductor market you
serve both for carrier Ethernet and the unmanaged switches for the enterprise?
What do you estimate is the size of the market you're addressing and your market
share you think in those two segments?
Chris: We've looked pretty hard at the IP edge and that would include both wired and
wireless infrastructure in the carrier segment, sort of from the edge metro part of
the network in that is closer to the end user. For PHYs and switches in that
segment we think it's about a $500 million served market. If you look at the
enterprise segment, kind of the layer 2 unmanaged, managed, etcetera, switches, I
can't give you a firm number off the top of my head but that's in the $200 to $400
million range and these are sort of 2015 kind of numbers. They're pretty sizeable
markets.
Q: You're looking at sort of a billion served market so lots of growth runway for you.
Chris: Yeah and that's for, again that's for the switches and the PHYs. If you get a little
more broad and look at our connectivity portfolio and backplanes, etcetera, we
think we're serving something that's well north of $1 billion, probably $1.5 billion
by 2015.

I could go on, point is the website has plenty of information regarding the companies direction, her possibilities. Then again i could be 100% off base! I am a product of Los Angeles inner city public education.

HP is strongly promoting its cloud Products! Vitesse problem might be inability to ramp fast enough for the HUGE thirst of HP, Cisco(meraki)... So many customers worldwide between the two GORILLAS. For these mega companies to trust technology from a mini outfit in their future plans is truly a testament to Vitesse know how; Perhaps this is what made Perna dispensable.

Peace

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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Tech my brother!
It's like raising piglets for market: Piglets usually go to market in 6 months- They become born, you take them through the process of QUALIFYING for their ultimate demise- you feed them , keep them nice and warm, treat them for colds, castrate the young males(used to love that)- Outside of Hawaiians or Samoans who purchase young pigs for luaus, you as an owner is making not a penny from this operation, but rather spending like crazy- On the first day of the sixth month your 220lb pigs are scooped by the buyer- you receive the cash, from which you pay bills etc.

In the tech world same process applies, in the words of
chavan • 6 months ago -
Vitesse has already mortgaged the farm to loan sharks to get these chips out to the equipment makers, but can it survive the 18 month Telco qual cycle given its limited financial resources?  Next trip to the loan sharks is going to be really expensive.

Crg's piglets have been going through the process, now the harvest is starting to pour in: It goes design win- process(a year or almost 2)- GET PAID. Since Vitesse had issues, which left a 3 year gap of no meaningful piglets being produced; We today are paying the price. This left multiple 6 months of no real pay coming into vitesse, with only those customers with deeply embedded vitesse stuff paying her.

Awesome to hear crg and gang has found ways to expedite product qualifications! no more 18 months of starvation.

So the monetization of Vscope, IP and friends is coming about! lets enjoy the ride.

off to the tropics for a couple of months of mango, coconut and all the exotic riches of paradise to enjoy.
Organic non GMO!!!

peace be onto all

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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Notice how top 3 are Vitesse customers

https://wwws.ameritrade.com/cgi-bin/apps/u/Main

https://wwws.ameritrade.com/cgi-bin/apps/u/Main

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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For the first time in a very long time VTSS seems to have a plan going forward in what seems to be a rapidly growing market. This is a good thing. The company's finances are also mortgaged to the hilt. This makes VTSS very risky with an enormous cost of capital. Can they grow enough in the paradigm shift to grow past their prodigeous debt in a limited time? This is the question. I hope they do (I have money invested), but this is the question. 2014 is approaching fast!

Posted by phobos - 10 years ago

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The debt is a huge problem and it's obvious we needed to merge or be bought out some time ago. Didn't happen because the shareholders are peasants in the Gardner Monarchy. Why should someone buy this company when they can pick the bones clean after it goes belly up.

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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The problem with the numbers Garnder cites is none of them make any sense. Here is an example.

Let's use Gardners citing a $1.5 billion total market for 2015. Now lets back that up to 2013. Let's assume the market is expected to grow for 2 years at 30%. that would mean the market size for 2013 is about $9 hundred million (.9 times 1.3 times 1.3 = 1.5 billion) VTSS will end up close to $100 million for revenue for FY2013. That means VTSS has a market share of 100/900 = 11%. If the market grows 30% next year and VTSS has revenue below $130 million, almost a certainty, this would imply VTSS market share is decreasing, not expanding.

What is all this talk about about winning 30-50% of design opportunities. It doesn't show in the numbers.

Even more scary, Gardner cites a $500 million life cycle revenue for all of the design wins now in the stable. By his own estimate the life cycle of one of these products is 6-8 years. Let's use 7 years. 500/7 = $71 million per year in revenue from all of the design wins they currently have secured. Which means any revenue in addition to that 71 million will have to come from yet to be secured design wins. Again by is own admission the time lag from design win to revenue is 1.5-2 years at the least and maybe more.

Hey I hope I am wrong. But I don't believe one word from Gardner. The numbers don't add up with the rhetoric and they never have.

Posted by dlog - 10 years ago | Updated 10 years ago

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The below is a response I received from investor relations ( LHA, Cathy Mattison ) regarding dlog's post above, based on Gardner's inability to speak about projected marketshare and potential earnings.

It was relayed to me that slide 6 depicts VTSS's addressable market and slides 5 and 7 contain industry/market growth estimates.

13-05 VTSS-Overview_FINAL_14052013.pdf
1 attachment (3.0 MB)

so much for my lacking computer skills with copying. The above investor presentation will be released during tomorrows conference (May 30,2013)

Anyone interested in speaking with investor relations regarding the above matter with Gardner and numbers, 415-433-3777 have at it!

Posted by christ3opher - 10 years ago | Updated 10 years ago

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Ericsson forecasts 4.5 billion smartphone subscriptions and 60% LTE coverage worldwide by 2018

http://thenextweb.com/insider/2013/06/03/ericsson-4-5b-global-smartphone-subscriptions-and-60-of-the-world-covered-by-lte-in-2018/?utm_campaign=social%20media&awesm=tnw.to_d0YrL&utm_medium=Spreadus&utm_source=Twitter

In order to drive the share price up, we need the serious buyers to purchase in a big way. These folks buy on the news and sell on the rumor. Right now there are only rumors of good things to come from a management with an unproven history. This past quarter we experienced strong growth in new products. Unfortunately, this strong percentage growth was coming off of a still small base and was eclipsed by the decline in legacy products, which still have a relatively large base. That should not be the case in the current quarter, whose results should become evident in early August. If VTSS can do what it says it can do, the debt and VTSS' future survival will not be an issue, but for some, this is still a big "if".

I don't need to speak to Gardner. We hear from him after each and every quarter for years now. Just show me the money, otherwise this has all been moonshine.

Posted by phobos - 10 years ago

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I'm concerned the serious buyers have already bought and of course we are back to our low volume ( 4 hrs. into session- 7.3k shares traded) intra quarter doldrums where the small players are trying to scalp a few pennies trading VTSS.

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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I'm guessing that, barring news (I couldn't say from where) VTSS' share price will likely remain in the summer doldrums until the next earnings call, where I would guess that we should see improvement in revenues, but like everyone else, I'm just guessing.

Posted by phobos - 10 years ago

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VTSS is such a POS stock- No volume ( 4 1/2 hrs. into session- 8.5 k shares traded), no options activity, and of course by definition no price appreciation.

Of course, why would anyone buy VTSS when they aren't buying stocks like Apple.

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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