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VTSS Investor Forum

VTSS earnings release, May 7, 2013

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anyone care to speculate what might be said.

Great activity in our accounts
record bookings
great product
all options open on financing (our burdensome debt)
and of course,

down revenue next quarter.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/vitesse-schedules-earnings-call-may-120000637.html

Posted by dlog - 10 years ago

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AMCC
release earnings April 25.

MSPD
release earnings April 30. MSPD has already announced a revenue shortfall.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mindspeed-updates-outlook-fiscal-second-110000351.html

Posted by dlog - 10 years ago

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With the not so great news coming from other chipmakers (CRUS- off 15 % today, INTC, etc.) and VTSS's history of being a serial disappointer, I don't have much faith in good news on the sales/earnings front.

I'm sure they're continuing their cost cutting, but eventually you have to sell something and convert all these design wins into revs.

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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Vitesse helps customers provide 'specialized services'.

Carriers who were waiting for the MEF announcements now know who to buy from with confidence. Design should be strong.

peace

S. HOT STOCKS: Health Management, Adtran, Ciena, Fastenal
1:15p ET April 10, 2013 (Dow Jones)
U.S. HOT STOCKS: Health Management, Adtran, Ciena, Fastenal
U.S. stocks were trading higher Wednesday, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently rose 143 points to 14816, the Standard & Poor's added 19 points to 1587, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 58 points to 3295. Among the companies with shares actively trading are Health Management Associates Inc. (HMA), Adtran Inc. (ADTN) and Ciena Corp. (CIEN).

Health Management Associates ($10.46, -$2.13, -16.92%) cut its full-year revenue outlook and said it expects first-quarter earnings and revenue to fall short of analysts' expectations as the hospital operator said inpatient admissions sank. While analysts are generally viewing Health Management's weak first quarter as company-specific, the sector's stocks are under pressure too after a downgrade for three hospital operators. Deutsche Bank moved Health Management, Community Health Systems Inc. (CYH, $42.15, -$1.76, -4.01%) and Tenet Healthcare Corp. (THC, $41.39, -$2.14, -4.91%) to hold while citing pumped-up share prices on investor enthusiasm for the U.S. health-care overhaul.

Adtran's ($22.30, +$2.59, +13.14%) first-quarter earnings fell 39% amid acquisition and other charges, but the networking and communications equipment company still managed to post better-than-expected earnings and sales. Also, network operator XO Communications revealed plans to deploy hardware maker Ciena's ($16.36, +$0.84, +5.41%) gear with media customers across its U.S. network. Ciena's fiber-optic gear lets carriers move massive amounts of data through their backbones, yet Wednesday's order also included a bunch of specialized services that tend to boost equipment makers' margins. Other networking-equipment makers were up amid the positive news, including JDS Uniphase Corp. (JDSU, $14.03, +$0.69, +5.17%) and Juni

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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Stock investors voting with their buys/sells of VTSS ( $ 2/share)- looks like headed below $ 2 again.

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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Nuss is from Ciena Corp.

"...what might be said"? --> a-homina-himina-homina

Posted by phobos - 10 years ago | Updated 10 years ago

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Below $ 2 again- was hoping for pre-earnings run.

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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This pathetic little company better not disappoint on the top-line revs. It seems the marketplace is especially sensitive to revs. misses. You can meet/beat earnings estimates but don't miss revs. or provide gloomy forward looking guidance.

This probably spells big trouble for VTSS.

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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http://www.fiercetelecom.com/story/mef-certifies-20-vendors-under-ce-20-specification/2013-01-29

Half of the 20 qualified with Vitesse help, odds are that many of the remaining 68 expected to qualify this year will make it happen with vitesse products. I believe the flood gates have opened as future qualifiers run to Vitesse doors.

Techinvestor my friend, this is the opportunity of a life time before big money moves in.

Peace

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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I sincerely hope your assessment is correct GARIF for all the long suffering VTSS shareholders.

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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I'm very concerned for our little underachiever stock (VTSS) as we head to earnings May 7.

SWKS (Skyworks Solutions) just beat earnings and Revs. estimates and even forecast better than expected earnings for next quarter but slightly below Revs.

Stock is being punished; down 4 percent (.80).

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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AMCC reported earnings.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/applied-micro-circuits-corporation-reports-200500583.html

Revenues were up 9% from 90 days ago and 15% from a year ago.

Revenue guidance from VTSS for March 2013 is $25 - $28 million. If VTSS hits that the revenue from 90 days ago will be -3.5% to +8.1%. From last year it will be -15% to -3.4%.

If VTSS reports $25 million in revenue it will be down 15% from last year. AMCC is up 15% from last year. That is a 30 percentage point differential.

Posted by dlog - 10 years ago | Updated 10 years ago

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With top tech companies such as Apple and IBM disappointing, that doesn't bode well for VTSS. Riverbed (RVBD) just disppointed along with many others recently. Maybe Gardner will have legitimate excuses this time.

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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I believe that Gardner said that this quarter (the one being reported -- ending March) would be the bottom. Looking to Mindspeed,

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mindspeed-updates-outlook-fiscal-second-110000351.html

they attributed their shortfall to:

"The revenue shortfall is primarily attributed to slower than expected deployments of 3G small cell base stations, with wireless infrastructure revenue expected to be approximately $2.6 to $2.7 million in the fiscal second quarter of 2013. Revenue from 4G/LTE small cell base stations, however, is expected to approximately double in the fiscal second quarter of 2013 versus the prior quarter."

This could mean that the market for new products is canibalizing the market for legacy products at a somewhat higher than expected rate, which is OK. VTSS will probably experience another quarter of disappointing revenues because legacy products are declining more rapidly and from a larger base than new products.

What I will be looking for is a continued growth in new products north of 20% Q on Q (more than 20% growth represents a gain in market share because the market for new products is growing at about this rate). If the recent 30% Q on Q new product growth rate is maintained, then we should see the bounce in the June quarter (reported in August sometime).

My prediction? Revenues will be off, new product growth will remain on track, and the share price will remain at around $2.00 with some yo-yo-ing around the conference call.

I've been wrong before.

Posted by phobos - 10 years ago

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Perhaps this will ease our pain...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/vitesse-huawei-advance-cloud-radio-120000959.html

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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MSPD reported earnings.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mindspeed-reports-preliminary-fiscal-second-200400888.html

Guidance for June is flat.

comments from management "We have had to reconsider our views of how and when the market will develop."

Posted by dlog - 10 years ago | Updated 10 years ago

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MSPD also announced it is for sale and jumped 31% in after hours trading. Maybe the long awaited consolidation in networking silicon is upon us.

Frankly I think the BoD of VTSS should be pursuing a sale as well but inertia and a cozy relationship between management and BoD prevents it.

Posted by lurker - 10 years ago

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And sale- 5 times Avg Daily Volume and only 2 1/2 hrs. into trading session. Unfortunately, no price movement ( $ 1.99/sh) on activity.

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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Well tomorrow is CRG's day of reckoning- I'm sure he's dusting off some of his worn out excuses of why things are just NOT going according to plan. Of course he will do his best to spin things positive for the "Next Quarter".

It's always be patient, the pot of gold is just over the horizon.

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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Tech:

I have to say I don't even listen to CRG anymore. Until I see some progress IN THE NUMBERS I will not listen to him. He has been wrong 100% of the time for the past 5-6 years or however long he has been deluding himself and others naive enough to give anything he says even the slightest credibility. When revenue starts moving north, and the bottom line turns black instead of red and the balance sheet ceases to have the sword of Damocles hanging over it then I will pay some attention and then the stock might cease to be moribund.

Posted by dlog - 10 years ago

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Right on dlog- let's treat CRG's conf call as white noise and let the numbers speak for themselves.

My worst fear is Billy Martin has a short fuse and tires of CRG's nonsense and bails- that would be the kiss of death.

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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hile we were disappointed with our financial performance in the fiscal second quarter, the weakness was primarily within the 3G wireless market. In turn, we have had to reconsider our views of how and when that market will develop. Our other product lines for high performance analog and communications processors performed consistently with our expectations, and 4G/LTE met our goal of doubling in the quarter,”


"4G/LTE met our goal of doubling in the quarter"

That from MSPD brought joy because Vitesse has several must have products for the 4G world.

MEF activity should be strong.

I expect nothing but positive news tomorrow.

peace

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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Garif:

Let's hope your expectations are met.

Posted by dlog - 10 years ago

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i expect about the same qtr from vtss - but with plenty more optimism about the next 6-12 months - -

our product line is more defined and viable than MSPD - -

they did lead the way so far -- but vtss will score in the second iteration of 4G-LTE/Advanced - -and especially in the TD arena which china has chosen.

i see vtss as worth at least $6 today - -sounds crazy - -yes

$6 X 60MM shrs = $360MM or 3 times current revs - -fair for now --and i see qtrly revs topping out at $72MM per qtr by 2017. so u put a price on that. VTSS is not for sale like MSPD - -and not for less than $6 in any case - -the board knows the true value will be realized in the next 12 months.

build that better mousetrap - get BRCM and CSCO to buy ur stuff for their boxes - -along with chinese heavyweights Huawai and ZTE plus a few euro biggies - - soon they all will put a decal - -powered by VTSS

i updated the post "VTSS is a great trading stock" use the HOT button above to see the current posting.

Posted by daWiley1 - 10 years ago

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Well again, I think that we might see another disappointing quarter in absolute terms because the new products will be growing very fast, but the new products are also canibalizing legacy products, and from a larger base as a percentage of overall revenue. Then again, the bar has been set very low: expectation of revenue is just over $26M and earnings are a loss of $0.14, so it wouldn't take very much to send the share price rocketing upward quickly. I agree with the long-term outlook and this is likely the bottom, I just don't think that this will be the "bounce". Hope springs eternal. I could be wrong.

The one wild car in all of this is the IP. Gardner claimed that IP would eventually become fully 10% of overall revenue, much of which will fall to the bottom line. A 10% difference could make the difference between the market seeing this as the bounce and seeing this as the bottom -- a big difference.

I believe Gardner claimed that this quarter would be the bottom, but maybe he was just being conservative (what a nice surprise that would be!). We should know just after the close of trading today.

Posted by phobos - 10 years ago

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This is a special day also in that it is usually the only day each quarter that there is trading in after-hours- exciting.

There is even a small amount of options trading in VTSS.

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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Earnings out:

$ 24.75 mil Revs. and $ 4.85 mil loss ( - .13/share). No activity in after-hours trading yet.

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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Earnings Addt'l Info:

- New Product Revs. up 44% sequentially
- Design wins up 100 % YTD compared to 2012
- Operating expenses down $ 1.3 mil
- IP $ 64k (Down significantly from $ 1.8 mil 1st Qtr 2013)
- Working capital up $ 3.2 mil

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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VTSS math:

We can now estimate full year 2013 revenue with some reason. VTSS will end up with $102 -$107 million in revenue for the full year.

Here is the progression (retrogression) for the past few years starting with total revenue 2010 (in milli0ns)

$165, $141, $119, $106.

Maybe 2014 will get us safely out of triple digits and takes us safely into double digits.

Here is the interesting stuff.

Gross margins are mid 50% at best. Operating expenses are $19 million. With a little 8th grade math we can get a breakeven revenue. 19/.55 = $34.5 million.

in other words VTSS has to get to $34 million in one quarter to break even at the "operating profit"level. That means there is still interest to pay.

Posted by dlog - 10 years ago | Updated 10 years ago

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I think your gross margin estimate is much too optimistic.

A year ago, gross margin was 61.0%. Last quarter was 54.1% and this quarter was 54.0%. Guidance for next quarter is 51% to 53%.

Clearly, margins for the new products are lower than for the legacy products, so it's probably safe to assume they'll continue to come down.

Being generous and rerunning your breakeven calc using the midpoint of next qtr's guidance gives 19 / .52 = $36.5 million.

Good luck seeing that any time soon...

Posted by HappyGoLucky - 10 years ago

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Yea,

This is one sick company. No vision, no accountability, no management. no nothing. if the new product revenue grows 25% sequentially it will only take 8 quarters ( 2 years from now as in FY 2015) to hit the mid 30s in revenue. And then it might be break even . . . . maybe.

I would l love to have management reveal their plans to make this company profitable. That is assuming they have any. Right now there appears to be no intent to ever make VTSS a profitable enterprise. I really think this is what is actually the truth. Right now there is no intent or viable way to stated path to profitability. Really very sad.

Posted by dlog - 10 years ago

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Anyone listen to the Conf Call- I didn't? I know it's just for yucks, but anything at all interesting?

I know someone who is a devout believer in a company WAVX- product is security software run by the Sprague family. I believe they have never made a profit in 26 years, but there are still believers. We may become the new WAVX ( .48/share on NASDAQ).

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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CC stated the obvious, best equipment, solutions and more design wins than ever............................................ ever!!!!!!

CFO sounded like he was calling bingo at an old folks home.

Just don't ask how any of this translates to Revenue or Profit.

Posted by Jeff - 10 years ago

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Jeff;

"CFO sounded like he was calling bingo at an old folks home."

That may be the single best description of VTSS I have ever heard.

If there were any questions from "analysts" it tells you who VTSS is working with trying to get the debt refinanced. These guys feel an obligation to show an interest in the company and pretend it has some merit. No REAL analyst would waste his time with this little company. Current market cap of the company, per yahoo, is $79 million.

For comparison, in April of 2006 market cap was $700+ million. By May of 2006, CRG is CEO by then, market cap was about $390 million.

Yea, I know. It's time to let it go. but how does this guy stay as CEO? 7 years --- straight down.

Posted by dlog - 10 years ago | Updated 10 years ago

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dlog:

Don't get me started about Gardner and his abysmal performance. I'm sure he would get a nice "golden parachute" if he left, but it would be worth every penny.

The $ 79 mil market cap is chump change for anyone who really has an interest in the company, which is obviously no one. I don't understand Raging Capital's purchase of shares and as I stated before, if they bail it will be a penny stock for years to come back on the pink sheets.

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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Phobos,
You called it on the money, the IP deal would have made a sweeter difference.
will I go to my grave as another WAVX muttering daily about potentials that become just that...

http://www.thedeal.com/content/tmt/small-cells-big-sales.php

isco in a Nutshell

As the biggest supplier of computer networking systems, Cisco does business all over the world, with almost half of its revenues coming from abroad. Its products consist of networking switches (32% of sales), routers (18%), and “new products” (48%), which consists of what Cisco used to call the Advanced Technologies segment as well as wireless products, security solutions, and data center products.

As Cisco has said, the new products segment consists of products and ideas that could turn into multi-billion dollar businesses. The company spends a considerable amount of its cash flow on R&D, and most of that is funneled into the new products segment.

How c

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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The real winners in the old west was not the poor saps digging, panning for gold but rather the clean shaven lad who provided them all the tools for the job, clothes, ammo, booze etc.
Vitesse is providing the plumbers of today with must have technology, Ericsson, lucent, Cisco, all the top plumbers are plumbing with Vitesse inside... How can this not translate into $$$$$$$$$$ months ahead ??????????

peace

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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Just to put this in perspective: as Gardner said, "This is a start-up." The company that VTSS was is gone. If you bought shares at the height of the tech bubble, it is a sunk cost, and you will never see that money again. Period. But, having said that, I believe that substantial appreciation is possible from the current share price levels. I would need a better crystal ball to say exactly when and how much, but there is no doubt that VTSS' valuation is compelling albeit with some risk.

The turnaround took so long because it must be the meeting between careful market execution and paradigm shift, and paradigms just don't shift that often -- even these days. The financial shambles the previous management bequeathed to current management has not been helpful either. I believe that the market execution has been very well-done so far.

Time will tell.

Posted by phobos - 10 years ago

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I know we're in trouble when we sink to quoting Gardner. If this is truly a startup, why are we stuck with legacy management with old ideas and a proven track record. In fairness, you're right that previous management did stick Gardner with a bad hand, but he has had so many years to at least start a decent turnaround.

Substantial appreciation is possible, but a substantial loss is also equally possible and probable unless changes are made soon!

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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What changes would be made?

Posted by phobos - 10 years ago

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phobos:

I agree with you totally. This is a start-up. Comparisons with the past mean squawt.

The only "change" that would of meant something to me would be the pay raises that Gardner has been receiving. His pay should of been based on shareprice appreciation.

I am betting on "substantial appreciation" (eventually)

Posted by christ3opher - 10 years ago | Updated 10 years ago

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christ3opher, how could I disagree? However, In a nation where the banksters steal trillions and walk, holding Gardner financially accountable would be like throwing the proverbial deck chair off the Queen Mary. So long as management's interests coincide with those of the shareholders and they don't steal too much, I'm OK with it ... I guess I would have to be. What is the alternative?

Posted by phobos - 10 years ago

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According to the very people who OK his raises "HE IS PAID THE GOING RATE FOR CEO'S IN THE INDUSTRY" it is what it is friends!
we see it in sports where one mega star gets a mega contract then the runts start making more money...
The fleas come with the dogs boys, such can be the nature of capitalism.

Be that as it may, there is one hidden gem in this operation, Martin Nuss! guess the binbos did something right after all. Nuss'es genius continues to create the right products! we are extremely lucky to have him.
The best is yet come come thanks to Nuss and I guess CRG.

Peace

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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The removal of Gardner would show the investor community that the VTSS Board is serious about affecting change and finding someone with fresh ideas and hopefully the ability to execute a Business Plan.

He has had 6/7 years and hasn't had success.

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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If the Board was going to remove Gardner it would have been done following the debt restructure a few years ago, when the debt-holders had two of their own added to the Board.

Many of these holders, Whitebox, Martin, Kopp etc. have all added to their sharebase.

Posted by christ3opher - 10 years ago | Updated 10 years ago

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There happens to be 65 million obstacles in the way of VTSS stockholders right now. It is the $65 million of debt that has to be addressed. And there is no way VTSS is coming out of this without significant dilution (again) to the shareholders.

Posted by dlog - 10 years ago

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I don't see how the dilution could have been avoided. The financial shambles that previous management left in their wake did not leave current management with a lot of negotiating leverage. VTSS was probably lucky to not go chapter 11. On the plus side, if the debt converts, it will leave VTSS with a much lower cost of capital and risk profile, which will offset some of the effects of the dilution on the valuation. It would be great if you-know-who was convicted and we could get some claw-back, but I don't think that will ever happen. If you rob the local convenience store you will go to prison, but if you steal big enough, you skate. The moral is: never tell a small lie or make a petty theft. Think big! We at the retail level have to be "OK" with this: we have no choice.

Posted by phobos - 10 years ago

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Our design win rate is increasing. In 2010, we typically won 20% to 30% of our design opportunities. Now, that number is between 40% and 50%. Our improving market traction comes from three areas: first, time and market. We’ve now been selling carry-Ethernet silicon not PowerPoint for over two years.

Customers have deployed product and they’ve seen it work. Many of our customers were among the first to achieve MES 2.0 compliance, a major milestone for carry-Ethernet systems. Many have received industry awards for their new platforms that includes our silicon. We’ve developed credibility in this segment and we have reputation for best-in-class features in technology even against our much bigger competitors.

"we've developed credibility in the segment and we have reputation for best ..."

Credibility has been restored,

The companies’ achievements are are a testament to their commitment to outstanding delivery for the Carrier market” said Ihab Tarazi. “Certification will enable service providers to choose equipment vendors with greater speed, clarity and certainty. CE 2.0 Certification marks a significant moment in the life of the MEF and Carrier Ethernet.”


ven market growth ... less than 20% per quarter growth in new products would be a bad sign, exactly 20% growth in new products quarter on quarter would be a sign of 'a rising tide lifting all ships', and greater than 20% growth in new products would indicate a growing market share in a growing market. I tend to think we are in the latter-most category. Even though the second quarter is likely to be the bottom, we can still check the Q on Q growth in new products to verify that VTSS is on-track. Let's keep our fingers crossed.
Posted by pho

Perhaps the tide is starting rumble...
Volume is turning positive, stock is heading north and....

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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So, if service providers don't buy from Huawei and ZTE, they will buy from Cisco, Alcatel, Juniper, etc. Don't we supply chips to pretty much everyone? It could cause a delay in deployments possibly ... time for BRCM to catch up? A closer call for VTSS dealing with its debt? Might be a problem. Thoughts?

Posted by phobos - 10 years ago

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In my opinion the next two quarters are critical for this companies survival; revenue must grow and do so handsomely.

Dlog shared his ideas eloquently few months ago.

It is possible. VTSS could refinance without the 10 million share dilution. But you have to ask the question. What will they use to replace the bonds? They could do a straight equity deal. In that case the dilution would be much worse than 10 million shares. They could do a new convertible. In that case the conversion price (given today's price) would be much lower so that would mean more dilution than the 10 million shares. They could do all non-convertible debt so no dilution but this is a kick-the-can-down the road decision. Or they could do a combination of both.

So I am not sure what to think here. Get the stock price up and things start to look a whole bunch better and options become much more attractive when talking about addressing the debt.
Posted by dlog - 8 month

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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I agree GARIF (Dlog); addressing the financial issues has a great many moving parts. Those parts would become fewer and less risky if VTSS could get into the black and establish a market niche for itself. The next quarter is put up or shut up time. I don't want to hear, "Oh China was a little soft this quarter", or "Some of our IP deals didn't materialize". That's BS! If at some point all these design wins don't start translating into revenue, VTSS' potential financiers will begin to get the perception that VTSS is more risky than it appears, and not less, no matter how many investor presentations they do. People will begin to get the perception that CRG is not that far removed from the previous regime, and that is a perception that VTSS can ill afford. Let's see some tangible evidence of a turn in this quarter's revenue ... let's get it done already while we're all still young enough to enjoy the share appreciation!!!

Posted by phobos - 10 years ago

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Nothing crazy, but someone is accumulating some shares. It's forcing the price up which is good. Means most don't want to sell this low.

GO VTSS.......... Please?

Posted by Jeff - 10 years ago

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a close on hi of day - -when have we seen that happen??

liquidation is over.

small accumulation is starting -- most have either never heard of vtss, forgot or hate em.

price stayed low til the buyer found out that the well is dry for cheap shares.

follow the link in my post -- 'vtss is a great trading stock'.

when has vtss outperformed aapl?? even for a day or two??

vtss is worth more today than the conversion price --

3 times revs plus a kicker for new products more than doubling each year.

more later . . .

Posted by daWiley1 - 10 years ago

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Didn't we(western countries) build factories etc in china because of her CHEAP Labor? now we cry because she is able to sell at much lower prices and still make a profit.

This reassures me that China's LTE will truly be built by her local companies. Hooray for Vitesse, we will be there! sprawled in every corner Chairman Mao's old stomping grounds.

"Capitalism is not a zoo it lets some creatures get fat but only so they can be eaten by hungrier BEASTS."

We invited them to our party(capitalism), careful what you wish for said an old wise-man...

Do I sound treasonous, my apology.

Peace be onto all...

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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GARIF, protectionism in the face of severe recession is not a good thing.

Posted by phobos - 10 years ago

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"MAY YOU LIVE IN INTERESTING TIMES"

Great times to be alive, heck! I get to witness the accumulation of Vitesse stock. The company has truly reinvented the self, she has indeed brought the RIGHT mix of products to market.

The most significant announcement this company has made, has gone mostly unnoticed on this site. The exercise between Vitesse, Huawei and China Mobil is the BiG DEAL!! it's the get out of poverty lane deal. Vitesse is about to bundle Timing and security to a nation/country not a city or state. ZTE, Fiberhome,etc, are using Vitesse. The uniqueness that China is leads me to believe she will synchronize on ONE Timing solution, thus a monopoly for Vitesse.

Bash brothers any idea on the monetary value of this, for an EX-little company to be?? or have the years of disappointments erased our ability to see the possibilities for our little company.

Look forward to your responses...

Peace

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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Garif- Even VTSS CEO Gardner doesn't forecast any of this wonderful China news! He forecast Revenue in the $ 25 mil - $27.5 mil range for the 3rd Qtr 2013 (Ends June 30) - pathetic as usual!

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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right now VTSS management would be thrilled to show any revenue growth at all, even single digits. FY 2013 is already assured of being another down year in revenue making what? 6 in a row.

I will be as happy or happier than anyone on this board to see revenue growth at VTSS. But listen to Gardner about designs wins? no. Listen to management forecast increased revenue?, no. Listen to how competitive and innovative new product is? no.

I am done listening. SHOW ME THE MONEY

Posted by dlog - 10 years ago | Updated 10 years ago

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Right on dlog- talk is cheap. GARIF- The only monopoly VTSS will ever have is ineffectiveness and inabilty to sell in China- everyone else sells something.

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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We also saw a very strong growth in our Carrier Ethernet switch engines, but
from a relatively small base. As I’ve noted in the past, we’ve won significant
number of switch engine designs in applications such as 4G base stations and
backhaul, Ethernet access devices, and small cell. It always takes a long time for
the Carrier platforms to go through testing, qualification, lab, and field trials, so
we don’t expect to see these ramp materially until early next year. That’s why our
growth through 2014 is largely dependent on design wins taken in 2011 and 2012.
We’ve estimated in the past that almost 90% of our new product revenue through
2014 comes from designs captured during those two years. In fact, we estimate
that we’ve shipped less than 10% of the total lifetime revenue from these designs.


"It always takes a long time for the carrier platforms to go through testing, qualification, lab, and field trials."

No seeds planted(design wins) from 2007 through 2010, equals no harvest from 2011 through the first Q of 2013.

Seeds planted(design wins) late 2010 through 2011 and early 2012 are right on schedule, bearing fruit today! 7 million this past quarter.

Design wins = revenue growth with usually a year or two of starvation in between while design wins go through the process of becoming... in the case of Vitesse it really is starvation for a few years in between due to Lou and friends.

Good times are coming, buyers are moving in, "D" wins continue to grow... I know, I know the "D" word again!! I wonder what would have happened if Crg had said,
IN THE QUARTER NEW PRODUCT REVENUE EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS, BUT REGRETFULLY I MUST INFORM YOU WE HAD NO DESIGN WINS THIS Q, BUT WE ARE HOPEFUL FOR FUTURE QUARTERS...

Perhaps a year or so from now us bag-holders will rendezvous on some tropical Isle and toast to having hung in there.

Peace

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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