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VTSS Investor Forum

Another blah quarter on tap??

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Movement of the stock price sure would indicate such. I can hear it now, revenue $27-28M, slowness in China, more design wins that mean nothing to the revenue, blabbering about "same store sales" (how did they come up with that one) and the internet of things (more pipe dreaming) and some spin by CRG and Marty on how new product revenue is now at an all time high % of total revenue (this one really cracks me up; they think we're stupid. Of course it is going to go up when the denominator keeps falling!)

Posted by sharpinvestments - 10 years ago

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Boy did you nail it- I can tell you have been through many of CRG's Conference Calls. He is probably now reviewing the transcripts of previous calls to pick out the "best" sound bites for tomorrow's lovefest. I'm concerned there will be a day when no one calls in due to lack of interest.

I agree also, "same store sales"; did he actually say that? What are we Target, Dollar Stores, etc.

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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i got thinking the other day that there is a very good chance that Mr. Gardner will spend his entire career as a CEO without ever having one single quarter where the company he headed reported a net profit. That by itself would be quite an accomplishment. I don't know I have ever before seen any CEO have that as his most singular achievement. how long has he been CEO? It really doesn't matter. He is now batting 0 for a career. But the good old coach still has him hitting clean-up.

Posted by dlog - 10 years ago | Updated 10 years ago

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Even before the birth of INTELLISEC Crg used to brag, 'we are the switch king" well, "When Juniper reported Q4’13 results we chalked-up its strong switching growth to a data center interconnect win at a large cloud provider (who we believe is AWS), since Juniper has one of the most robust MPLS implementations of all the switching vendors."
Vitesse products were/are part of the above project and many more.

From PMC sierra," We expect LTE build out in China, cloud and data center build outs, and storage demand to increase substantially, each of which will act as a solid catalyst for the company through 2014."

Same quote applies to Vitesse now that we're back in the STORAGE game. Some how I expect fewer excuses this Q from our captain of industry.

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2014/05/05/cisco-juniper-new-products-boost-switching-prospects-says-citi-raymond-james/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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Let me just say ...meh.

So, how much will this particular stone drop at the open tomorrow? I'm really sick of the B.S. I think VTSS needs to go the way of MSPD.

Posted by phobos - 10 years ago | Updated 10 years ago

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It's not a "STONE" but rather a BOULDER!! unbelievable! board members called it correct again...

lets hear the Bs..

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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I just listened to the call. It was excruciating. The hemming and hawing was ridiculous. It was said that it takes 6 years to go from design win to peak product in some cases. ...what would that be? 2018?

Posted by phobos - 10 years ago

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What I find pathetic, beyond the to be expected disappointing results, is no after hours trades. It's obvious no one cares about this stock. What does Billy Martin see in this company?

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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It was another 'wait till next year" mumble.

Satbot, yes girlfriend and other insiders did well, so sad.

Hey, we might see some dollars from IoT sooner than later as SURVEILLANCE is doing very well. lol, lol

Hey, perhaps we can use some of the Vitesse enabled SURVEILLANCE stuff to see what the SEC crew waste OUR time doing...

Sounds like we're outside the big action in China.

Phobos, you and I were the only ones wearing blinders, correction! I wore the darkest blinders of all.

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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Dark days are ahead again and closing in rapidly. Gone was any mention of "operating breakeven". The 100% year over year growth in New Products has been unveiled for what it is - not true - 63% year over year is not 100% growth for the next several years compounded.
The danger has always been that New Product Sales would only grow at a rate to offset Legacy Product declines resulting in the PIG continuing on, but with NO GROWTH.
CRG was terrible, but then he had nothing to work with. He sounded extremely sad. It was clear that his stories have now been laid bare and the tide is about to change starting this morning. I am afraid that it is not going to be pretty. They will be "backing up the truck" - only it is going to be the garbage truck. This next week will most likely take out the $2.92 year end closing price.
Most sadly all the hope that drove the stock to $4.69 is gone. There most likely will not be any Russell 2000 selection; meaning there will not be funds forced to buy in June. Probably quite the opposite. There will not be Operating Breakeven in the August report to drive the price higher and thus eliminate the debt issue for October. And further dilution will have to occur as the Company is again forced to give to the debt holders.
All and all, I would say that we have reached the end of the road and all that is left now is a sale of the Company. In its current form, it can not grow and thus I now doubt it can survive. The only thing that did survive this call was the Employee Stock Compensation which surprises no one.
"The bell tolls" - it tolls for thee, VTSS.

Posted by Satbob - 10 years ago

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It looks like missing an entire design cycle while management dithered (juggled the books) during the debacle is coming home to roost: legacy product revenue is declining rapidly, while new products are slow to come online. Doing some quick calculations (I trust my numbers more than theirs), long term decline in legacy products has been about 26% per year, and the long term growth of new products has been about 88% per year, or around 17% per quarter (CRG was right when he said this was a good quarter for new products with 29% growth Q on Q). Using my new data points, it doesn't look as if we will hit break-even until Q215. I am assuming break-even revenue of $30.7M (this could change because as per the call, VTSS is now hiring). I'm thinking actual revenue for Q3 might be something like $26.5M. We won't reach the magical (?) $40M quarter until Q116 (Wow!).

Everything is now pushed forward by about one year.

Things to worry about:

1. A further decline in expectations.
2. Martin getting fed-up and taking the whole thing private.
3. Martin getting fed-up and selling.
3. Another pound of flesh to Fat Andy.
5. The economy tanks even more, and everyone loses their capex budgets.

I really hope I'm wrong.

I wonder how many people are actually left on this board, or how many are actually no longer shocked at the record of ever-declining expectations in VTSS.

This is business as usual.

...and here comes the share price slide:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=VTSS

"Vitesse Semiconductor (NASDAQ:VTSS) was upgraded by research analysts at Craig Hallum from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a report released on Wednesday, TheFlyOnTheWall.com reports."

http://tickerreport.com/banking-finance/208363/vitesse-semiconductor-upgraded-to-buy-at-craig-hallum-vtss/

"New Seagate Breakthrough Fundamentally Alters Cloud Economics"

...as mentioned in the earnings call:

http://www.seagate.com/about/newsroom/press-releases/Seagate-breakthrough-fundmentally-alters-cloud-economics/

Seagate will be using ethernet.

Come back in a year everyone.

Posted by phobos - 10 years ago | Updated 10 years ago

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I did not listen to the conference call live. I waited for the recording where I can "fast forward" through most of the nonsense. One item I did hear was Gardner saying that breakeven would be delayed because management was going to increase investment in employees, R&D etc to take advantage of the growth opportunities, blah, blah, blah.

It has been very apparent and this is further confirmation Gardner manages this company at a perpetual loss. And my guess is he always will. He is very comfortable reporting losses and probably only looks at cash flow (which is negative as well). I have no idea where he got this management philosophy. But he shows complete disregard to the owners of the company, the stockholders. He has continually demonstrated his inability to address the multiple interests that are inherent in a public corporation.

Posted by dlog - 10 years ago

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Can you believe some poor soul paid $ 3.62/share on gap up at the opening- now down $ .42/ share if they held on.

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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Hope ruins, I mean runs eternal... Why didn't our fearless leader share a little more color $$ on the potential of the new storage opportunity, will it be bigger than IoT? is it expected to ramp earlier than some of the IoT stuff that's already been won?

Posted by GARIF - 10 years ago

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After listening to the call again I began to decipher what is going on,

"The management team is focused on the right balance between short-term returns and the longer term growth opportunities that seem to get stronger each quarter. We will continue to operate the company prudently through this transition. "

These guys are growing a company, a company that is involved in a brand new form of communications that this company is designing the product for. I would much rather delay our financial goal to instead grow this company the way it should be. This all adds up to more revenue and more revenue leads to a higher share price.

I am sure Mr. Martin and Kopp and others all know that it takes time to grow a brand new form of communications that is worldwide and doubt they are going anywhere.

I wonder why Craig Hallum upgraded to a buy? I bet with all of the upcoming investor conferences and news based on the many new opportunities for growth, the share price will be making another run up soon.

Posted by christ3opher - 10 years ago | Updated 10 years ago

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Christ3opher, you maybe right. It was clear looking at the price swing of the shares yesterday, that the market didn't really know what to do with this call. On the one hand, IoT is slated to become 25% of all future business, opportunities have opened up in the data center (a market we thought was gone forever), and design wins (not an audited metric) continue to accelerate (so we are told). On the other hand profitability has been delayed in order to foster long (er)-term growth. Perhaps this is a sign that VTSS can become much bigger than anyone thought. It's a crap-shoot. Mr. Martin does seem OK with it all though. Let's see what he does with his shares, if anything.

Posted by phobos - 10 years ago

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I would think that anyone who would be doing anything with their shares, would be Needham.

They could (will) run this thing back a good amount and buy back in at a reduced rate while still making a nice profit on their initial purchase of $1.75 share.

Posted by christ3opher - 10 years ago | Updated 10 years ago

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We had nice bounce yesterday off of the lows- looks like we're down on the support area again today ($ 3.25). Let's see if we can hold and run up again or maybe start a drop to the $ 3 area.

Posted by Techinvestor - 10 years ago

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