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VTSS Investor Forum

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http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ud?s=VTSS

Posted by phobos - 8 years ago

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They've joined Needham in putting out the Buy recommendation. It's not Goldman Sachs but it's good to have a firm pumping the stock.

Posted by Techinvestor - 8 years ago

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Much needed love in our direction!
Vitesse has Re-invented her self! she has comeback from the dead with relevant products and technologies that are key for smooth industry transition.

Competitors must be scratching their heads about how someone with meager means($) can be so resourceful. Competitors must now pay a high price to buy her or take the cheaper road and license from her.
"HOW YOU LIKE US NOW" should become the companies mantra.

Useless,

Posted by GARIF - 8 years ago

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Not here pumping - and you all know wiley and I are trading friends -- do you now believe vtss can cross $4.50 by end Oct? 70 cents in 6+weeks ? enjoy the ride PS wish they pay off 2016 note as well end Oct the interest savings alone improve us

Best to all
Dave

Posted by dadon_111 - 8 years ago

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I believe.

Posted by phobos - 8 years ago

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I too believe that $4.50 will be achieved by Oct. This is easy money. So much at stake for the analysts who have endorsed VTSS. The upcoming earnings will be indicative of the future of VTSS.

Posted by Pac5705 - 8 years ago

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I too would love to believe, but with VTSS's track record and until we actually see improvements on both top and bottom-line, I'm not a believer.

There are also always external forces at work: Technicians following the charts, pumpers and dumpers, the general market, sector performance, and let's not forget the crowd that believes the Alibaba (BABA) IPO will be the top in the market.

Posted by Techinvestor - 8 years ago

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I just listened to the Craig H. investor conference presentation of VTSS. It is Gardner for the whole 30 minutes. He has said the same thing for the past 6-8 years or whatever it has been. To his credit when asked why invest in VTSS he never said "revenue will grow." I find that very telling. He did say revenue in 2015 would be "tempered" by the further decline in mature product sales. Just let me say this. I have never seen a company that had new product sales increase at the exact rate as mature product sales decreased. VTSS holds the record for managing that. And given the accounting history of VTSS I am extremely suspect of the "new product sales" numbers. My guess is they are more appropriately described as "replacement" product sales ie VTSS is canabalizing its own sales, selling to its historic customers and not expanding the customer list or the product line. We will see when new product sales top out at $30 million per quarter and cease to grow at 50% year.

At least Raging Billy is on the board and he has some decent sized $$$ involved. Maybe he can get VTSS to report black numbers, irregardless of its lack of growth, for the first time in 10 years .

Yea, I'm not a believer yet. But I'm hoping.

Posted by dlog - 8 years ago

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I heard that VTSS was now in markets with minimal competition because of how VTSS has segmented those markets (VTSS occupies a market space essentially different from that of other large competitors - lower bit-rates, but higher feature sets), because of synergies with software that VTSS now offers the carrier market, and because entering the semiconductor space presents a cost that is itself a high barrier to entry. VTSS' markets were growing more quickly than related markets, but not as fast as VTSS' revenues (indicating a gain in market share in fast-growing markets). I also heard Marty McDermott claim that VTSS would be paying-off the October debt (no dilution), so not only will (interest) expenses be declining, but VTSS' model (high operating leverage) will lend itself to increased gross margin going forward. Lastly, I was very gratified to hear CRG sounding very life-like, not shying away from short-term issues, like the lumpiness in legacy products causing issues with the top line in the first half of '15. In the past, we would have seen the explanation emerge after the revenue short-fall. He's getting ahead of the bad news and making the case for VTSS. Good job -- and a welcome relief.

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4EMVKT/3484422639x0x782372/34dd046a-08e5-4263-9210-06e9766183c1/14-09-17%20VTSS-Overview_Sep2014_CRAIG-HALLUM_FINAL_17092014.pdf

Posted by phobos - 8 years ago | Updated 8 years ago

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Some back of the envelope calculations...

Using Yahoo!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=VTSS&annual

For 2013 break even was about $126M (adding back the loss to the total revenues). If gross margin went to 60%, then it could be as low as $117M. Now if we pay off the debt and save $4M of interest expense per year, then that would be $113M. That's a little over $28M on a quarterly basis. VTSS claimed that it would experience between 50% and 75% new product (now a significant fraction of the total) revenue growth in '15, which I translate as somewhere between $30M (50%) to $34M (75%) per quarter.

The upshot?

I don't see how VTSS could NOT get into the black in 2015 (...of course I am talking about VTSS).

Posted by phobos - 8 years ago

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