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VTSS Investor Forum

Earnings expectations for this week?

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The hype has gone on far too long. It's time to hear VTSS has a viable business model that delivers to its shareholders. It's time to hear that the "wins" are converting to real revenue and not just another round of "wish list" predictions.
Show me the money or this $100K shareholder is out of here!!!

Posted by Pac5705 - 7 years ago

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AMEN to that Pac5705. I will be very interested to see if there is any material change in the presentation now that raging Billy is on the board. Do we get more specificity on the numbers, more detail on the revenue stream and product. do we get some guidance that makes sense. If we get more of the same old same old I will be very disappointed. I get the feeling we are in the middle of a - drop what we used to talk about as a market and lets start talking about the internet of things as our growth market- change. If that is the case that will make something like 3 times VTSS has used this ploy. Of course none of the previous 3 growth markets ended up with any growth at all.

Don't let us down Raging. At least let us know you are there.

Posted by dlog - 7 years ago

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Just expect the same, you'll never be disappointed.

There's been some really dark days on this board, I'm ready to change this tune.

Continually Hopeful!!!

Posted by jvincent - 7 years ago

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We all know UPOD is not in VTSS's vernacular. At most companies with as many earnings disappointments as we've had, there would have been a management change by now- amazing.

He must dazzle the Street with his engineering knowledge. CRG-please present a roadmap to profitability, one that is attainable.

Posted by Techinvestor - 7 years ago

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Analyst consensus is right around $28M. As per the last earnings call, there might be a pretty big hit to legacy products during this quarter (H1'15). My model was showing $28.7M, but I have no idea how to average-in the vagueness of the forward guidance of the last earnings call. The volatility of the share price since then indicates that the market doesn't know how to value VTSS either. Given the hit to legacy products (the new "softness in China") in H1'15, revenues might be a little lower than expected... I just don't know.

The only thing I can hang my hat upon is that LTE seems to be heating up (even if people seem to be having a hard time figuring out exactly what IoT is and what it's good for). The legacy products having a swifter demise is also a part of the ramp of LTE /small cell products. Will a rise in new product sales fill the gap?

I just don't know.

PS

Tech- that would make VTSS' strategy OPUD, an apt moniker.

Posted by phobos - 7 years ago | Updated 7 years ago

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To me the question is:
Is the management team a "techie bunch" or do they have "business savy" folks coming up through the ranks who know how to put together a strong "value prop" to capitalize on LTE, to aggressively displace competitors and to turn this organization into a viable profitable business to reward both employees and shareholders. What "techie outfits" need is a stellar business savy head of sales to help make this company, who apparently talks the talk go out and reach for the stars and touch them. If the hype is real, the shift in the industry focus is aligned, there's absolutely no reason why these guys cannot hit the home run....if not now...then when?
No more excuses...show us the money!!!

Posted by Pac5705 - 7 years ago

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So much for a pre-earnings run. We continue the slide towards $ 3.

Posted by Techinvestor - 7 years ago

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" or do they have "business savy" folks coming up through the ranks who know how to put together a strong "value prop" to capitalize on LTE, to aggressively displace competitors and to turn this organization into a viable profitable business to reward both employees and shareholders."

from Q3, 2012,
"One of the most differentiating features is our IEEE 1588 timing and
synchronization technology that we've recently branded as VeriTime. Timing and
synchronization is critical in all carrier and many industrial and enterprise
networks. It is required in base stations to prevent dropped calls between adjacent
cell towers and in backhaul to reduce latency and prevent data corruption. Our 1
GB and 10 GB VeriTime PHYs provide a very simple upgrade path to provide..."

Honestly! those of you living in western societies, how many "dropped calls" did/have you experienced this year??
Also from Q3 2012 CC,
"I spoke a bit about our market traction with our VeriTime PHYs last quarter. Over
40 customers, a 70 percent win rate, and over 100 pending opportunities. That
traction continues to improve. In Q3 we closed over 30 designs with a win rate
over 80 percent and we still have 100 pending opportunities."

Fast forward to today, and between VeriTime and INTELLISEC Vitesse has over 500 design wins!!!!
Sadly, Vitesse is not in the business of installing smoke detectors, it takes several years to see a cent from most jobs.

Useless,

Posted by GARIF - 7 years ago

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Thanks Garrif, so with 500+ wins today how much real revenue is being derived from all this hype? They need to find a way to break out from this under $30M rut they are in and step up their game to at least $50M + in the near future to get the attention of the $5 minimum analysts.
I believe it's time for a new "business savy" management team to take control of this company and drive it to the next level....clearly the same old crew have not been able to step up ..... It's time that we the shareholders voiced our say!!!!!
I've been here since 2001 and if this quarter isn't the beginning of a new era ... then it's time for change...... either a change of management or time to take my investment and place the bet somewhere else. The demo is getting old, the promises of a new world is losing credibility... It's time to S or get off the pot.....

Posted by Pac5705 - 7 years ago

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Management probably needs to be different.

The turn has been neither swift, sure, or complete as of yet. BM (the guy who is really in control) is happy because he hasn't been a bag-holder for going on nearly a decade and he got his shares at around $0.10 (what could be bad?). VTSS needs to show an increase in audited revenue. "Design wins", "new customers", even "new products", are all good signs, but only signs in the end. The market is bracing to be disappointed yet again as VTSS does a low-volume slow-bleed into yet another ho-hum earnings call. Time is also money, as someone once said, and this is taking way too long (costs too much!).

People are likely doing some end-of-year re-balancing of their portfolios. The volume has been extremely low. There needs to be a little more urgency in relation to the shareholders. Letting news of the settlement of the debt trickle out to the investment community is the most recent example of how this company regards the retail investor (not at all!). I wonder if they would notice if we all sold our shares at once?

VTSS has until Q3'15 (next September) to pleasantly surprise me (show a profit), or I am going to have to take what remains of my investment elsewhere. There are less frustrating ways to lose money.

...let the countdown begin.

Posted by phobos - 7 years ago

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Down and down I go, I'm in a spin... I'm showing my age.

The root of the problem is the Board is populated by CRG Cronies that have no desire to change the status quo- they have a good thing going. It's their little fiefdom that they can exploit to their heart's content.

Exacerbating the situation is the do nothing major holders like Kopp, that are content to lose money year after year.

Posted by Techinvestor - 7 years ago

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"In addition to product revenue, we license our intellectual property to a growing
number of customers. IP revenue was 1.4 million in the quarter compared to 4.6
million in Q3. Overall in 2012, our IP revenue was up 16 percent from fiscal
2011."

" While most of our revenue in IP is still license fee-based, we
expect that royalties will become a contributing factor starting in 2014 and grow
to be a material portion of our IP revenue as our customers move their products into production."


Friends, Kopp and all others who could alter CRG's destiny with the company understand "as our customers move their product into production." They know instant gratification does not rhyme with Vitesse business. Crg for years has shared with us the snail pace of the racket, yet many among us remain oblivious to this reality.

from Q1cc 2014,
"Designs ty pically take from 12 months to 36 months to get into production. So most 2013 design wins won't begin
to ramp materially till the very end of this y ear and into 2015."
from Q2 2014 cc,
"The leading indicator for future growth is our design win performance. I’ll remind
you that we modeled(?) that designs take from 12 to 36 months to get into production."
Also from Q2,
"Yeah. So in terms of the design cycles, it depends an awful lot on the market. So
you mentioned IoT specifically, and then we also look at Enterprise and Carrier.
Enterprise right now is definitely our fastest market, and some of those can—we
said 12 to 36 months to get to first production revenue, and an Enterprise product
can ramp maybe in 12 to 24 months to peak revenue. We definitely see Enterprise
guys take longer than that and last longer. For example, we designed in 5 and 8-
port switches ten years ago, and those are some of our Ethernet products that are
now sort of rolling off on the mature side, and those products had a much longer
lifecycle than what we would anticipate. So if you look at the production revenue,
Enterprise is the quickest and it’s probably, at a minimum, two to four years to
peak. Carrier is the slowest, and it is generally at least four, probably more years
than that, probably four to six years. And the IoT is a little bit bimodal. If you’re
looking at something like a security camera, those kind of applications are pretty
quick. But in industrial applications, smart grid applications, those guys are
arguably even slower than the Carrier, because you can imagine you’re putting a
switch into a nuclear power plant. You want that switch to work and be qualified,
et cetera. They even have very slow transitions of technology from one
networking technology to another. So I think that’s the first part of your question."

"The second part of your question is, do we expect them to accelerate? Yeah, we
do – and honestly, those numbers are including some acceleration. I think if you
had looked at this ten years ago, it would have been slower to ramp. What does
that mean for our existing portfolio? Well, we think we’ve included those kinds of
estimates. They’re long-term model estimates."

There is hope on the horizon,
"I have several examples of how things are turned into revenue. First, six months
ago I mentioned an important design win, a US-based tier 1 OEM, for what they
call a network interface device. This equipment can be deployed in both wired
networks to deliver Ethernet services to homes/businesses/enterprises or into a
wireless network to deliver backhaul for 4G LTE services. The project design
started in September last year and field deployments, including MEF 2.0
certification, started this March. This time-to-market pace, formerly unheard of in
a service provider environment, was enabled with a Vitesse switch and software
turnkey solution. We’ve already started to generate some revenue from this
project, which we expect to grow through 2016 to over $3 million per year and
last for five years or more. We are targeting multiple customers with these types
of products and have already won in the last quarter a leading tier 1 in China,
where we believe we can take substantial market share."

Crg and his team are delivering on promises and(laugh if you will) executing masterfully!!! why fire such PERSONS???

" As you look into ’13 after a
pretty tough ’12 in general, do you see any new markets expanding? Maybe asked
a different way, what’s the next timing 1588 market out there?

Response, " We’ll be looking at some security functions, and we think security is
going to be an interesting and dynamic area over the next couple years. And the
concept of adding some of these security capabilities and some of the timing capabilities together, I think, will be a particularly difficult challenge that we’re
going to look to address."

Oh! the beauty of the "500" WINS? INTELLISEC/VERITIME according to CRG are our foot in the door products.

Useless,

Posted by GARIF - 7 years ago

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GARIF, all respect, if we're still having this same conversation next September, then I'm done. I'm expecting $28~29M Q4'14. Now I'm sure CRG warned for a reason and this is why the share price is declining into earnings. My expectations will likely be explained away (the "softness in China" syndrome). OK. Stuff happens. How long should we wait? How badly should retail investors expect to be treated? This is up to the individual, but this is my own personal "line in the sand". I am prepared to be wrong, but history says otherwise. Who am I to fight against history?

Posted by phobos - 7 years ago

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I think we are all intrigued by the profit potential and leverage in basically a penny stock and especially one that was a real company years ago when they had their day in the sun.

I hope the recent (March, 2014) high of $ 4.69 won't be the high for years to come.

Posted by Techinvestor - 7 years ago

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Not much support going into earnings release - probably for a good reason as usual.

Satbob - still watching, just not playing.

Posted by Satbob - 7 years ago

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Met estimates on earnings (- $.04) and beat on revs. by $800k ($ 28.7 mil). Stock up 13 cents ($3.23) in after-hours.

Why?? They now forecast revs. of $ 24 to $26.5 mil for 1st quarter. Aren't we going in the wrong direction! Where are all the sales for this wonderful Intellisec, etc.?

Posted by Techinvestor - 7 years ago

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Tech,
Along with the reasons given by CRG, our Chinese friends always take a siesta for their New Year festivities. Interesting people,they take a month off and work like dogs the rest of the year. Nearly every company doing business with China experiences this phenomena with the exception of KFK, whose business booms year round. My source tells me Fat Burger's are continuously packed! American ingenuity is fattening Chinese! interesting indeed.

" Where are all the sales for this wonderful Intellisec, etc.?

" IoT network communications are increasingly standardizing on Ethernet, opening new options for security. Ethernet networks work at Layer 2 (L2) and have their own encryption protocol defined in the 802.1AE MACsec standard. L2 security encryption is the ideal choice due to the direct correlation between the strength of the security solution and the layer at which security is implemented."

"Timing and synchronization are critical in all kinds of next-generation networks, but especially so in wired industrial IoT networks, for real-time communications and interactions of dispersed smart objects collaborating on time-sensitive tasks such as smart grid load-balancing and automated rail control to traffic management systems and industrial process control.

Vitesse's VeriTime™, the industry's de facto highest accuracy 1588 implementation for nanosecond-accurate network timing and synchronization, is a field-proven timing solution that meets the deterministic requirements of IoT networks."

Useless,

Posted by GARIF - 7 years ago

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There is the new buzz word . . . "IoT" this will get kicked to death. While it's nice to see this POS up today, I remain unimpressed with their numbers . . . CRG should have been shown the door a LONG time ago.

Posted by G - 7 years ago

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Amazing- Hit almost $ 4 this AM on good vol ( 600k so far). GARIF- Are you the one doing all the buying?

Maybe this is the classic, buy when no one else wants stock or classic short squeeze. Numbers and forward guidance (Revs.) are nothing to cheer about.

Posted by Techinvestor - 7 years ago

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I finally listened to the conference call, and crunched some of the numbers. If you take the $11.4M legacy and take that down by the full amount in Q1 AND if new products grow at a 50 to 75% rate (11~15%/qtr) in the coming year, then using 11% as the growth number for Q1, I get $26M, not the $24M low-ball forecast. Weren't we just talking about UPOD? Could CRG be catching on? Using those growth rates, by Q3'15 VTSS is at $29.8M and $32.1M in Q4. Adding back the loss to the top line gives a B-E of around $31.2M. The trend is that VTSS will become B-E before the year is out using the most conservative growth estimates.

This might be why the share price rocketed upward at the bell.

Posted by phobos - 7 years ago | Updated 7 years ago

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Good analysis phobos. On a technical basis, VTSS needs to close above resistance at $ 3.80.

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=vtss

Posted by Techinvestor - 7 years ago

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I'll admit to having no idea why the stock is up $.60 today (at this writing), but there is a reason. This is the type of move that often precedes an announcement of some sort. I am wondering if we see an SEC filing in the next couple of days that will explain this. The timing is suspect. The day after a pedestrian earnings announcement. Someone didn't want to buy before the earnings announcement. This would argue that it is an insider who didn't want to fight off accusations they were trading on inside information. That would point to Ragin Billy buying more or management buying a big chunk, something we haven't ever seen. Or maybe everyone just figured out VTSS had paid off the debt. I have seen this happen before.

Whatever magic it is I would love a few more like this.

Posted by dlog - 7 years ago

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Holy cr*p! Am I reading the ticker right: $4.04 @ 10:58?

This has to be someone who did not wait for the magic $5 level to buy-in, given that it's re-balancing season again.

Posted by phobos - 7 years ago | Updated 7 years ago

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Good news technically- yesterday and today we re-tested breakout area (around $ 3.80) and now we want to head higher!

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=vtss

Posted by Techinvestor - 7 years ago

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I'm sure the heavy buyers wish they would have waited. Market pulled back strong after early rally and likewise VTSS.

Up $ .32 at one point ($ 4.10) only to close up $ .05 ($ 3.83) on heavy volume ( 401k shares).

It's sad when I listen to Jim Cramer (Mad Money) talking about Triquint and RFMD merger and Cypress semi buying other companies. VTSS used to be a player and now just trying to eventually do revs of $ 30 mil/Qtr- pathetic!

Posted by Techinvestor - 7 years ago

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Last time Cramer said buy, buy, buy VTSS was right before this whole mess started in 2006. I hope he doesn't jinx us again.

Posted by uwave1 - 7 years ago

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I don't think there is any chance of Cramer even mentioning VTSS- if he does we know he's lost it- Unless someone asks him about VTSS on "The Lightning Round" segment.

He usually believes in owning "best of breed". He will occasionally take a flyer but until he starts recommending penny stocks for a "pump and dump" we won't be on show.

Posted by Techinvestor - 7 years ago

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He endorsed VTSS on his show back then with "buy, buy, buy" when they were $200 million rev. I think it was days before the backdating scandal. He had egg on his face so I doubt he'll make the same mistake again.

Posted by uwave1 - 7 years ago

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He endorsed VTSS on his show back then with "buy, buy, buy" when they were $200 million rev. I think it was days before the backdating scandal. He had egg on his face so I doubt he'll make the same mistake again.

Posted by uwave1 - 7 years ago

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Anyone selling their financial insights as cheap entertainment has no insight except into the gullibility of the average retail investor. I'll cite me posting here as an example of such an investor, so I know whereof I speak.

Posted by phobos - 7 years ago

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