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Vitesse Semiconductor Price Target Raised to $5.00 at Needham & Company LLC (VTSS)

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"Vitesse Semiconductor (NASDAQ:VTSS) had its price target upped by Needham & Company LLC from $3.90 to $5.00 in a research note issued to investors on Friday. The firm currently has a buy rating on the stock.'

'Separately, analysts at Ascendiant Capital Markets initiated coverage on shares of Vitesse Semiconductor in a research note on Friday, September 12th. They set a buy rating and a $5.25 price target on the stock. Four investment analysts have rated the stock with a buy rating, Vitesse Semiconductor currently has a consensus rating of Buy and an average price target of $4.75."

http://tickerreport.com/banking-finance/365422/vitesse-semiconductor-price-target-raised-to-5-00-at-needham-company-llc-vtss/

We are edging ever closer to the magic $5.00 number where we become a little more investment-grade.

Posted by phobos - 8 years ago

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Needham was the firm that was the sole handler of June's VTSS stock offering. Must have been time to call in a favor.

Posted by Techinvestor - 8 years ago

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You are absolutely correct Tech. Otherwise Needham would have no interest in VTSS at all. But this is how it has worked for scores of decades and hopefully it will have some positive impact.

Did Needham come out with a revenue projection for the full year of fiscal 2015? I would be very interested in seeing that.

Posted by dlog - 8 years ago

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"Otherwise Needham would have no interest in VTSS at all."

"AT ALL"

Interesting perspective/observation...
Perhaps the Xmas spirit affecting Needham's judgement? was nice of them to put a quarter in Vitesse pan-handling cup.

Yes Verizon shared some good news, perhaps continued positive news from customers will rescue Vitesse from the street corner with her cup.

Useless,

Posted by GARIF - 8 years ago

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Here is an interesting perspective from the Yahoo board, his numbers for Q1,15 seem too optimistic, 27million would be awesome. I expect Q4-15 to come in north of 31M! be interesting to hear your perspective on his numbers,

cool_spring • 6 hours ago
0users liked this postsusers disliked this posts0Reply
3 year projection on VTSS
Math is what matters. You can't invest without listening to the invest conference call and understand the numbers. I did some estimate calculation based on # from Marty and Chris, expected an estimated stock price of $9 by 2017 Q4 on a revenue of about $47-50M and earning of $9-10M. Past high fly price does not matter. But do your own math. Of course semiconductor is cyclic and you can overlay your cyclic projection, and I never want to predict the broad market.
Please do not try to influence either way, it won't work, the price won't change based on your wishful thinking. This is not a perfect company but is a decent company. Be educational to readers to make everybody a pleasant experience. At its current status, it is a relatively low risk decent return investment option, but don't expect to double your value very soon.

quarter revenue (M)
15Q1 29
15Q2 26
15Q3 26
15Q4 27
16Q1 28
16Q2 29
16Q3 31
16Q4 33
17Q1 36
17Q2 39
17Q3 43
17Q4 47 Less
Back To Board

Posted by GARIF - 8 years ago

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My comment on these numbers is this ( and the comment is way too long). Anyone can put out a list of numbers. The difficulty is trying to determine how much credibility the numbers have and if they even look reasonable.

I am going to try to say this without sounding condescending. Anyone with any corporate financial knowledge knows the difference between a calendar year and a fiscal year. And if they have dealt in the securities industry for any time at all they know that when publishing estimates for revenue or earnings it is standard practice to use the company's fiscal year unless the projections are specifically identified as "calendar year" estimates.

It looks to me that the above revenue estimates are using a calendar year because the "15Q1 29", which, if it is the first fiscal quarter is the quarter ending December 2014, seems to point to an estimate of $29 million of revenue. The company has given guidance of way lower than that. I am guessing he is thinking 151Q is the quarter ending March 2015. But for the company it is the quarter ending December 2014. So we are in trouble right out of the shoot. Just to give you some idea of the difference this makes, again using his numbers, he has revenue for Fiscal year 2017 of $151 million (starting with his Q4-2016 and ending with Q3-2017) and revenue for calendar year 2017 of $165 million assuming again his numbers are calendar year numbers. Quite a difference.

His comment on $47-$50 million revenue in (calendar) 17Q4 which again is the first quarter of fiscal 2018, with a profit of $9-10 million is interesting. That is a (presumably) net profit margin of 20%. Meaning profit after taxes (taxes might not be much admittedly).

Just work through the numbers. $50 million at 60% gross margin leaves $30 million. minus $10 of net profit leaves $20 million for SG&A, R&D, interest costs and any taxes that need to be paid. Current cost for those items is $18-$19 million and that doesn't include taxes or interest. So VTSS would have to double revenue without adding any costs to SG&A or R&D, remove all debt to avoid any interest expense and pay nothing more than a 10% tax rate.

but if VTSS did hit the $10 million in one quarter lets just annualize that (multiply by 4) and you have $40 million net profit divided by 60 million shares (the number would be higher by then given VTSS's proclivity to award stock options but whatever) that gives an EPS $.67. A $9 stock price would imply a P/E ratio of 13. And this for a company with a 20% net profit margin. Who knows what P/Es will be in 2017 but I'm betting they would be much higher than 13 for a company with a 20% net profit margin and a growth rate in revenue of 42% (quarterly year over year growth, again using his numbers). For a company like that I would use a minimum P/E of 30. That would give a stock price of $20. (30 times eps of .67)

so my cut on these numbers. They are not very internally consistent, don't show much thought and make some assumptions that cause one to strain.

Having said that, it is anybody's guess on the revenue stream. His numbers could be as good as any I could generate. Personally I am hoping for a much faster ramp. But so far that is all I have . . .hope.

Posted by dlog - 8 years ago | Updated 8 years ago

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" Personally I am hoping for a much faster ramp."

Thanks for taking the time Dlog! indeed his numbers seem to be disconnected from Vitesse expected reality from the very start with his 29M expectation; but yes like you I am hoping the long promised ramp swings into action sooner then the "wait until later" we continuously hear.

Speaking of HOPE! sounds like Nuss took full advantage of a full house audience to once again extol the relevance/importance of Vitesse solutions. Just as CES helped boost our design wins this latest speech should serve a similar purpose.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lte-networks-must-thwart-security-043000751.html

Posted by GARIF - 8 years ago

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Fascinating how nowhere in this article is a word about INTELLISEC. For those of us wondering why the stock is moving north, this article might help.

" We are the leading 1588 timing provider in the industry.'

" We are really dominating today in the market for equipment for microwave/millimeter wave small cell backhaul."

" we are the primary vendor for low-power networking switch engines that can be deployed with these small cells."

" 2011 and 2012 were really good years for us primarily based on the 1588 timing capabilities in our ICs but also for the very low power switch engines for the mobile access base."

"Our strength in 1588 has given us big opportunities in the upgrade of the entire mobile backhaul network, in areas such as cell site routers, aggregation routers and pre-aggregation routers as part of."


http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20130121VL213.html

"We are excited by this opportunity to more closely support our customers in China," said Phil Richards, vice president of sales at Vitesse. "We're seeing strong acceptance of our unique IEEE1588v2 network timing technology, VeriTime™, as the carriers upgrade their wireless networks. This move enables Vitesse to grow accordingly as we expand our serviceable market this region."

Posted by GARIF - 7 years ago

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